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Прозорците се припокриват, затова наблюденията не са независими. Минали резултати не гарантират бъдещи." }, "projection": { "mu": 5.854420971830451, "hist_cagr": 11.091570441222597, "equilibrium": 5.6, "history_weight": 0.04632936507936508, "method": "gbm", "flag": "Историята е кратка (< 8 г.) – използван е нормален модел вместо bootstrap.", "tax": 10.0, "inflation": 2.5, "lump_fan": [ { "y": 0, "p10": 1.0, "p25": 1.0, "p50": 1.0, "p75": 1.0, "p90": 1.0 }, { "y": 1, "p10": 0.8784908772071871, "p25": 0.9619550430466214, "p50": 1.0600959347370384, "p75": 1.1614676816000014, "p90": 1.2692789984128807 }, { "y": 2, "p10": 0.8621966116322112, "p25": 0.9778620524111264, "p50": 1.1259068188257, "p75": 1.2797194603901585, "p90": 1.4447016677110327 }, { "y": 3, "p10": 0.8591520882489482, "p25": 1.0050840437491164, "p50": 1.1891384472039355, "p75": 1.4087972158554618, "p90": 1.6300089885114715 }, { "y": 4, "p10": 0.8659899547041336, "p25": 1.0341138266350007, "p50": 1.252481390429793, "p75": 1.5330110377383752, "p90": 1.8220042767560694 }, { "y": 5, "p10": 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26.927899841288074, "dca_p_loss": 34.8 }, "3": { "p_loss": 24.325, "p_below_inflation": 34.9, "p_below_cash": 35.225, "p_double": 1.95, "median_cagr": 5.944270194881529, "p10_cagr": -4.934409534048312, "p90_cagr": 17.687408515258962, "dca_p_loss": 26.5 }, "5": { "p_loss": 19.3, "p_below_inflation": 30.75, "p_below_cash": 31.15, "p_double": 9.975000000000001, "median_cagr": 5.888523611243079, "p10_cagr": -2.6943303545907793, "p90_cagr": 14.865534811381043, "dca_p_loss": 20.925 }, "10": { "p_loss": 10.625, "p_below_inflation": 24.125, "p_below_cash": 24.75, "p_double": 39.900000000000006, "median_cagr": 5.967060575820482, "p10_cagr": -0.16494909978854722, "p90_cagr": 12.250790941812895, "dca_p_loss": 12.375 }, "20": { "p_loss": 4.2250000000000005, "p_below_inflation": 16.0, "p_below_cash": 16.55, "p_double": 75.875, "median_cagr": 5.869035666663525, "p10_cagr": 1.5847635800877224, "p90_cagr": 10.348537309681083, "dca_p_loss": 5.1499999999999995 }, "30": { "p_loss": 1.7999999999999998, "p_below_inflation": 10.725, "p_below_cash": 11.450000000000001, "p_double": 90.25, "median_cagr": 5.843351766415461, "p10_cagr": 2.36406577112398, "p90_cagr": 9.404615455654941, "dca_p_loss": 2.4250000000000003 } }, "note": "Медианната годишна доходност е допускане: 5% историческа (11.1%) + 95% равновесна (rf + премия за риск = 5.6%) = 5.9%. Разпределението на колебанията е от реалната история (bootstrap)." }, "holdings": { "top": [ { "symbol": "NVDA", "name": "NVIDIA Corp", "weight": 8.3870694 }, { "symbol": "AAPL", "name": "Apple Inc", "weight": 7.375420000000001 }, { "symbol": "MSFT", "name": "Microsoft Corp", "weight": 5.77957 }, { "symbol": "AMZN", "name": "Amazon.com Inc", "weight": 3.7111699999999996 }, { "symbol": "GOOGL", "name": "Alphabet Inc Class A", "weight": 3.06721 }, { "symbol": "AVGO", "name": "Broadcom Inc", "weight": 2.5355201000000003 }, { "symbol": "GOOG", "name": "Alphabet Inc Class C", "weight": 2.4545399999999997 }, { "symbol": "META", "name": "Meta Platforms Inc Class A", "weight": 2.4266900000000002 }, { "symbol": "MU", "name": "Micron Technology Inc", "weight": 1.8253599999999999 }, { "symbol": "TSLA", "name": "Tesla Inc", "weight": 1.5174201 } ], "top10_weight": 39.0799696, "top1": 8.3870694, "sectors": [ [ "technology", 40.47 ], [ "financial_services", 11.16 ], [ "communication_services", 9.950000000000001 ], [ "healthcare", 9.26 ], [ "consumer_cyclical", 8.75 ], [ "industrials", 7.550000399999999 ], [ "consumer_defensive", 4.33 ], [ "energy", 3.4000000000000004 ], [ "utilities", 1.8800000000000001 ], [ "realestate", 1.7000000000000002 ], [ "basic_materials", 1.5599999999999998 ] ], "assets": { "cashPosition": 0.0, "stockPosition": 1.0, "bondPosition": 0.0, "preferredPosition": 0.0, "convertiblePosition": 0.0, "otherPosition": 0.0 } }, "flow": { "gex": { "available": false, "reason": "Опционна верига – само за US листинги." }, "ats": { "available": false, "reason": "FINRA ATS данни има само за американски тикери." }, "footprint": { "cmf20": 0.015558210289105779, "ad_slope": 0.01555821028910575, "accumulation_days": 0, "distribution_days": 3, "updown_vol": 0.5577476383293221 }, "signal": { "score": 0, "max": 5, "label": "Слаб/неутрален поток", "reasons": [] } }, "peers": { "table": [], "chart": { "dates": [], "series": {} }, "currency": "EUR", "note": "Всички серии са с общо възвръщане, превърнати във валутата на листинга. Периодът е общият ≤ 10 г." }, "ucits": { "alternatives": [], "mapped": false, "notes": [ "Американските ETF-и (SPY, VOO, QQQ…) обикновено не могат да се купуват от дребни инвеститори в ЕС заради регулацията PRIIPs/KID – за ЕС се ползват UCITS аналози (ISIN започва с IE/LU).", "Ирландските UCITS ETF-и обикновено удържат по-малко данък върху US дивиденти от директно US фондове; натрупващите (Acc) версии не изплащат дивидент. Проверете условията при вашия брокер и данъчно третиране в България – не е данъчен съвет." ] }, "verdict": { "scores": { "cost": null, "diversification": 76.533384, "risk_adjusted": 75.16272014891199, "resilience": 93.34552394008722, "size_liquidity": 100.0, "track_record": 26.574074074074073 }, "weights": { "cost": 25, "diversification": 20, "risk_adjusted": 20, "resilience": 15, "size_liquidity": 10, "track_record": 10 }, "total": 75.99794243760385, "label": "ПОДХОДЯЩ КАТО ДЪЛГОСРОЧНО ЯДРО", "tone": "g", "strengths": [ "Топ 10 позиции = 39% от фонда", "Sharpe 0.55, максимален спад -23%", "Активи под управление ≈ 89.0 млрд (ликвидност/риск от закриване)" ], "weaknesses": [ "TER не е открит автоматично – проверете в KID документа.", "Кратка история (1.8 г.) – оценките са по-несигурни" ], "timing_state": "Неутрална зона", "timing": [ "Няма екстремно отклонение от тренда – DCA е напълно подходящ." ], "entry_plan": [ { "drawdown": 0, "share": 50, "price": 130.94000244140625, "label": "Сега / месечно DCA" }, { "drawdown": 10, "share": 25, "price": 121.80599670410156, "label": "При спад −10% от върха" }, { "drawdown": 20, "share": 25, "price": 108.27199707031251, "label": "При спад −20% от върха" } ], "steps": [ "Основна стратегия: месечно DCA в ETF-а (ядро на портфейла); не продавайте при спадове – историческият максимален спад е -23%.", "Допълнителни вноски по нива: 50% от наличния капитал сега/по месеци, 25% при −10% от върха (121.81), 25% при −20% (108.27).", "Ребалансирайте веднъж годишно; не го ползвайте като единствена позиция, ако не можете да издържите спад от 23%." ], "answer": "Да – като дългосрочно ядро (хоризонт 10+ години), ако можете да издържите спадове от 23%.", "track_years": 1.8492063492063493 } }, "composite": 75.99794243760385, "as_of": "2026-11-03T21:06:53.130444Z" }