{
 "symbol": "NVDA",
 "fx": {
  "cur": "USD",
  "eurusd": 1.1198208332061768,
  "to_usd": 1.0,
  "to_eur": 0.8929999963805676
 },
 "analysis": {
  "levels": {
   "support": [
    207.25,
    199.33999633789062,
    190.00999450683594
   ],
   "resistance": [
    213.99000549316406,
    214.38999938964844,
    227.9199981689453
   ],
   "sma50": 221.49780090332033,
   "sma200": 204.5714501953125,
   "low52": 164.27000427246094,
   "high52": 243.3699951171875,
   "bb_lower": 200.19149601570396,
   "bb_mid": 218.08550186157225,
   "zones": [
    {
     "name": "Агресивно натрупване",
     "rule": "MoS > +30%",
     "price_max": 83.75670869788416,
     "color": "g"
    },
    {
     "name": "Натрупване (BUY)",
     "rule": "MoS ≥ +20%",
     "price_max": 95.7219527975819,
     "color": "g"
    },
    {
     "name": "Задържане / DCA",
     "rule": "−10% ≤ MoS ≤ +10%",
     "price_max": 131.61768509667513,
     "price_min": 107.68719689727963,
     "color": "y"
    },
    {
     "name": "Частична печалба",
     "rule": "цена > FV +25%",
     "price_min": 149.56555124622173,
     "color": "r"
    },
    {
     "name": "Изход / хеджиране",
     "rule": "цена > FV +40%",
     "price_min": 167.51341739576833,
     "color": "r"
    }
   ]
  },
  "strategies": [
   {
    "key": "value",
    "name": "Стойностна (Value / Margin of Safety)",
    "description": "Купува се със защитен марж под справедливата цена и се държи до сближаване. Дълъг хоризонт, малко сделки.",
    "horizon_months": 24,
    "entry": 95.7219527975819,
    "stop": 71.79146459818642,
    "target": 119.65244099697738,
    "applicable": false,
    "status_reason": "Изчакайте цена ≤ 95.72 (MoS ≥ 20%). Сега MoS е -74%.",
    "trigger": 95.7219527975819,
    "stats": {
     "p_fill": 0.14633333333333334,
     "p_target": 0.34054669703872437,
     "p_stop": 0.3120728929384966,
     "p_open": 0.34738041002277903,
     "exp_return": -0.12738894882432147,
     "kelly": 2.1815008726003366,
     "rr": 0.9999999999999994
    },
    "risk": "Нисък–Среден"
   },
   {
    "key": "trend",
    "name": "Тренд / Momentum (Trend Following)",
    "description": "Купува се в потвърден възходящ тренд, с плаващ stop на 2.5×ATR и цел 2R. Средносрочно, повече сделки, по-ниска успеваемост, по-висок коефициент печалба/загуба.",
    "horizon_months": 6,
    "entry": 208.60000610351562,
    "stop": 192.5401272679597,
    "target": 240.71976377462752,
    "applicable": true,
    "status_reason": "Златен кръст, цена над SMA200 и ADX > 20.",
    "trigger": null,
    "stats": {
     "p_fill": 1.0,
     "p_target": 0.403,
     "p_stop": 0.5923333333333334,
     "p_open": 0.004666666666666667,
     "exp_return": 1.6613652361215054,
     "kelly": 5.0,
     "rr": 2.0000000000000018
    },
    "risk": "Среден–Висок"
   },
   {
    "key": "reversion",
    "name": "Контрариан / Mean Reversion (краткосрочен swing)",
    "description": "Купува се препродадена акция около подкрепа и се продава при връщане към средната. Кратък хоризонт, строг stop.",
    "horizon_months": 3,
    "entry": 207.25,
    "stop": 194.40209693155523,
    "target": 220.09790306844477,
    "applicable": false,
    "status_reason": "Не е препродадена (RSI 41). Лимит вход при ~207.25.",
    "trigger": 207.25,
    "stats": {
     "p_fill": 0.8911666666666667,
     "p_target": 0.4376285767720217,
     "p_stop": 0.5518982607069385,
     "p_open": 0.010473162521039836,
     "exp_return": -0.707431629402503,
     "kelly": 0.0,
     "rr": 1.0
    },
    "risk": "Висок"
   },
   {
    "key": "dca",
    "name": "Редовно натрупване (DCA) + доход",
    "description": "Равни месечни вноски за 12 месеца – изглажда входа и намалява риска от лош момент. Подходящо при несигурност.",
    "horizon_months": 12,
    "entry": 219.610738584954,
    "stop": null,
    "target": null,
    "applicable": false,
    "status_reason": "Препоръчва се само с половин размер: акцията е силно надценена (MoS < −25%).",
    "trigger": null,
    "risk": "Нисък–Среден",
    "stats": {
     "avg_cost": 219.610738584954,
     "p_profit": 53.266666666666666,
     "exp_return": 3.762874654839844,
     "worst5": -31.088236154873318,
     "dividend_yield": 0.4793863714000853,
     "tranches": 12
    }
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  ],
  "scenarios": {
   "1": {
    "exp_price": 210.78017863425387,
    "exp_return": 1.0451449985367554,
    "p_profit": 52.1125,
    "p_loss20": 1.5625,
    "p_gain30": 0.7374999999999999,
    "var95": -15.340456263501695,
    "cvar95": -18.94954235068512,
    "annualized": 13.288393236599095
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   "3": {
    "exp_price": 216.2212039949108,
    "exp_return": 3.6534984028779167,
    "p_profit": 53.7,
    "p_loss20": 9.3375,
    "p_gain30": 9.4,
    "var95": -24.169628711808265,
    "cvar95": -29.63401861556764,
    "annualized": 15.434561649345824
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   "6": {
    "exp_price": 226.07229106500694,
    "exp_return": 8.375975287757582,
    "p_profit": 57.425000000000004,
    "p_loss20": 15.1125,
    "p_gain30": 20.45,
    "var95": -32.327384564080674,
    "cvar95": -38.71561112728808,
    "annualized": 17.453520195726412
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   "12": {
    "exp_price": 233.55482905445598,
    "exp_return": 11.963002023382852,
    "p_profit": 55.425000000000004,
    "p_loss20": 23.5125,
    "p_gain30": 27.8375,
    "var95": -43.40201726947353,
    "cvar95": -51.4878626771483,
    "annualized": 11.963002023382852
   },
   "24": {
    "exp_price": 231.2481677158826,
    "exp_return": 10.857220014235308,
    "p_profit": 47.4375,
    "p_loss20": 35.925000000000004,
    "p_gain30": 28.599999999999998,
    "var95": -58.95580400097843,
    "cvar95": -66.50619079090156,
    "annualized": 5.288755341791029
   },
   "36": {
    "exp_price": 221.04991112509325,
    "exp_return": 5.968314792569783,
    "p_profit": 41.5,
    "p_loss20": 44.7625,
    "p_gain30": 25.8125,
    "var95": -70.07579720157644,
    "cvar95": -76.62224482942335,
    "annualized": 1.9511219078462094
   }
  },
  "risk": {
   "ann_return": 21.54076264195079,
   "vol": 43.94830292405789,
   "sharpe": 0.3773698006620434,
   "sortino": 0.5293425861865406,
   "max_drawdown": -36.886835186281196,
   "calmar": 0.5839688477791162,
   "var95_1m": -12.974939553829767,
   "cvar95_1m": -14.75590793641517,
   "beta": 2.247
  },
  "confidence": {
   "label": "средна",
   "why": "умерено разминаване между моделите (98%)."
  },
  "narrative": [
   {
    "kind": "val",
    "text": "Според ансамбъла от 4 модела акцията е силно надценена (справедлива цена ≈ 119.65, MoS -74%). Увереност в оценката: средна – умерено разминаване между моделите (98%)."
   },
   {
    "kind": "val",
    "text": "EV/EBITDA е 21.3, P/E 26.4, PEG 0.25."
   },
   {
    "kind": "quality",
    "text": "ROIC е 117.9% срещу цена на капитала ≈ 14.9% – бизнесът създава стойност."
   },
   {
    "kind": "quality",
    "text": "Оперативният марж е 65%, нетният 64%, FCF марж 42%."
   },
   {
    "kind": "safety",
    "text": "Финансова устойчивост: Piotroski 4.0/9, Altman Z 67.7"
   },
   {
    "kind": "safety",
    "text": "Нетният дълг е -0.2× EBITDA, лихвите са покрити 497×."
   },
   {
    "kind": "growth",
    "text": "Приходите растат със 100% годишно (3 г.), печалбата на акция със 204%."
   },
   {
    "kind": "tech",
    "text": "Технически: RSI 41, цената е -5.8% спрямо SMA50 и +2.0% спрямо SMA200, ADX 22."
   },
   {
    "kind": "risk",
    "text": "Риск: годишна волатилност 44%, максимален спад за 2 г. -37%, VaR 95% за месец -13% (CVaR -15%)."
   },
   {
    "kind": "warn",
    "text": "Активни сигнали за продажба: accounting_flag, mos_lt_-25."
   }
  ],
  "verdict": {
   "score": 38.1,
   "action": "ИЗБЯГВАЙТЕ / НАМАЛЕТЕ – надценена или с червен флаг",
   "tone": "r"
  },
  "history": {
   "dates": [
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     "name": "Катализатор (6–12 мес.)",
     "ok": true,
     "detail": "Цикличен обрат / разширяване на оперативния марж; Таргет на анализаторите +57% над цената; Предстоящ отчет до 90 дни (времево събитие, не гарантира посока)"
    },
    {
     "key": "dq",
     "name": "Без дисквалифициращи рискове",
     "ok": false,
     "detail": "Beneish M = -1.14 > −1.78 (риск от счетоводни манипулации)"
    },
    {
     "key": "entry",
     "name": "Сигнал за Транш 1 (MoS ≥ 20%, RSI < 40)",
     "ok": false,
     "detail": "RSI 41, MoS -74%"
    },
    {
     "key": "real",
     "name": "Нетна очаквана печалба ≥ +8% и стоп ≤ 50%",
     "ok": false,
     "detail": "след такси и данък: -0.3% от капитала; стоп в 0% от пътищата"
    },
    {
     "key": "edge",
     "name": "Побеждава пазара (rf + ERP)",
     "ok": false,
     "detail": "очаквана нетна -0.3% срещу пазарна ≈ 10.0% годишно → преимущество -10.2 п.п."
    }
   ],
   "passed": 1,
   "disqualifiers": [
    "Beneish M = -1.14 > −1.78 (риск от счетоводни манипулации)"
   ],
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "key": "margin",
     "text": "Цикличен обрат / разширяване на оперативния марж",
     "directional": true
    },
    {
     "key": "analyst",
     "text": "Таргет на анализаторите +57% над цената",
     "directional": true
    },
    {
     "key": "earnings",
     "text": "Предстоящ отчет до 90 дни (времево събитие, не гарантира посока)",
     "directional": false
    }
   ],
   "tranches": [
    {
     "n": 1,
     "alloc": 0.3,
     "price": 208.60000610351562,
     "trigger": "MoS ≥ 20%, катализатор, RSI(14) < 40",
     "goal": "Първоначална експозиция"
    },
    {
     "n": 2,
     "alloc": 0.4,
     "price": 199.33999633789062,
     "trigger": "Тест на институционално ниво",
     "goal": "Сваля WAP към локалното дъно"
    },
    {
     "n": 3,
     "alloc": 0.3,
     "price": 190.00999450683594,
     "trigger": "Капитулация – институционално ниво; VIX скок / фалшив негатив без промяна в тезата",
     "goal": "Максимален ефект върху средната цена"
    }
   ],
   "wap": {
    "all": 199.0586389913899,
    "t1_t2": 203.20595107630152,
    "t1": 208.60000610351562
   },
   "exits": {
    "tp1": 238.87036678966786,
    "tp1_pct": 20.0,
    "tp2": 119.65244099697738,
    "tp2_pct": -39.890857486394836,
    "stop": 171.4034649078528,
    "stop_pct": 13.892978583428011,
    "fair_value": 119.65244099697738
   },
   "upside": -0.3989085748639484,
   "rr": -2.87129626284589,
   "vix": {
    "last": 20.729999542236328,
    "avg20": 17.568000078201294,
    "spike": false
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   "sim": {
    "expected": -0.25599977119131984,
    "median": -0.2292062729882166,
    "p_profit": 36.66,
    "p_ge20": 0.0,
    "p_ge10": 0.0,
    "p_loss": 63.339999999999996,
    "p_stop": 0.0,
    "p_t2": 2.2800000000000002,
    "p_t3": 0.0,
    "p_tp1": 0.0,
    "p_tp2": 100.0,
    "worst5": -1.3292010789405138,
    "cvar5": -1.8524698289686534,
    "best95": 0.8291894906029708,
    "invested_avg": 30.912
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   "cagr_table": {
    "15": [
     10000.0,
     11500.0,
     13225.0,
     15209.0,
     17490.0,
     20114.0
    ],
    "25": [
     10000.0,
     12500.0,
     15625.0,
     19531.0,
     24414.0,
     30518.0
    ],
    "40": [
     10000.0,
     14000.0,
     19600.0,
     27440.0,
     38416.0,
     53782.0
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   "variants": [
    {
     "name": "Тесен (−9%)",
     "stop_pct": 9.0,
     "rr": -4.482383946585803,
     "upside": -0.4034145551927223,
     "sim": {
      "expected": -0.26501541385524074,
      "median": -0.2292062729882166,
      "p_profit": 36.66,
      "p_ge20": 0.0,
      "p_ge10": 0.0,
      "p_loss": 63.339999999999996,
      "p_stop": 0.0,
      "p_t2": 3.54,
      "p_t3": 0.02,
      "p_tp1": 0.0,
      "p_tp2": 100.0,
      "worst5": -1.3292010789405138,
      "cvar5": -2.032782682247071,
      "best95": 0.8291894906029708,
      "invested_avg": 31.421999999999993
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     "best": false
    },
    {
     "name": "Адаптивен (−14%, ≈ 0.75σ за тримесечие)",
     "stop_pct": 13.892978583428011,
     "rr": -2.87129626284589,
     "upside": -0.3989085748639484,
     "sim": {
      "expected": -0.25599977119131984,
      "median": -0.2292062729882166,
      "p_profit": 36.66,
      "p_ge20": 0.0,
      "p_ge10": 0.0,
      "p_loss": 63.339999999999996,
      "p_stop": 0.0,
      "p_t2": 2.2800000000000002,
      "p_t3": 0.0,
      "p_tp1": 0.0,
      "p_tp2": 100.0,
      "worst5": -1.3292010789405138,
      "cvar5": -1.8524698289686534,
      "best95": 0.8291894906029708,
      "invested_avg": 30.912
     },
     "best": true
    },
    {
     "name": "Широк (−20%)",
     "stop_pct": 20.0,
     "rr": -1.8558893864406827,
     "upside": -0.37117787728813656,
     "sim": {
      "expected": -0.2424992221462041,
      "median": -0.2292062729882166,
      "p_profit": 36.66,
      "p_ge20": 0.0,
      "p_ge10": 0.0,
      "p_loss": 63.339999999999996,
      "p_stop": 0.0,
      "p_t2": 0.0,
      "p_t3": 0.0,
      "p_tp1": 0.0,
      "p_tp2": 100.0,
      "worst5": -1.3292010789405138,
      "cvar5": -1.5824588480663393,
      "best95": 0.8291894906029708,
      "invested_avg": 30.0
     },
     "best": false
    }
   ],
   "sizing": {
    "risk_budget": 2.0,
    "rec_pct": 14.395761052893755,
    "full_loss_pct": 13.892978583428011
   },
   "assumptions": {
    "commission": 0.1,
    "spread": 0.05,
    "fx": 0.25,
    "stop_slip": 0.3,
    "tax": 10.0,
    "market_expected": 9.956000328063967,
    "side_cost": 0.4
   },
   "edge": -10.212000099255286,
   "entry_needed": null,
   "steps": [
    "Не влизайте.",
    "Причина: Beneish M = -1.14 > −1.78 (риск от счетоводни манипулации)",
    "Ако акцията ви интересува, проследете я за промяна във фундамента."
   ],
   "note": "Стопът се избира от три варианта по най-добро съотношение очаквана нетна печалба / опашков риск (CVaR 5%). Нивата на Транш 2 и 3 са пропорционални на стопа, за да остават над него. Всички резултати са след такси, плъзгане и данък. Катализаторите са автоматични прокси – потвърдете ги с новини и отчети."
  },
  "fan": [
   {
    "m": 0,
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    "p90": 208.60000610351562
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    "m": 1,
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  "profile": {
   "summary": "NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants. It has a collaboration with Cisco to develop Ultra-Dense Small Form Factor Pluggable (USFP), a high-density optical module pluggable transceiver. It has a collaboration with ChipAgents to develop Build-A-Chip-Bench, a benchmark for AI agents carrying chip design tasks and The Company has a strategic alliance with MediaTek to build the next generations of AI computing platforms. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.",
   "website": "https://www.nvidia.com",
   "employees": 42000,
   "country": "United States",
   "city": "Santa Clara",
   "exchange": "NasdaqGS",
   "industry": "Semiconductors",
   "market_cap": 5037064454144.0,
   "target_low": 180.0,
   "target_mean": 327.1431,
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   "recommendation": "strong_buy",
   "analysts": 58,
   "beta": 2.247,
   "next_earnings": 1794949200,
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     "2026",
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    },
    "ats": {
     "available": true,
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      {
       "week": "2026-07-20",
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       "total_volume": 500451400.0,
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       "week": "2026-08-17",
       "ats_shares": 64040503,
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      {
       "week": "2026-08-24",
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      {
       "week": "2026-08-31",
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       "week": "2026-09-07",
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      {
       "week": "2026-09-28",
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       "total_volume": 599330600.0,
       "share": 12.278222403461461
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      {
       "week": "2026-10-12",
       "ats_shares": 69292820,
       "total_volume": 521797700.0,
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     "last_week": "2026-10-12",
     "last_share": 13.279633083856062,
     "avg_share": 12.908251575167395,
     "lag_days": 22,
     "top_firms": [
      {
       "name": "UBSA UBS ATS",
       "shares": 10597257,
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      {
       "name": "INCR INTELLIGENT CROSS LLC",
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      {
       "name": "BIDS BIDS ATS",
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      {
       "name": "SGMT SIGMA X2",
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      {
       "name": "IATS IBKR ATS",
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     ],
     "note": "FINRA публикува ATS обемите със седмично/месечно закъснение – това е структурен индикатор, не сигнал в реално време. Отделните блокови сделки >$5M (prints) не са свободно достъпни."
    },
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     "distribution_days": 0,
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     "max": 5,
     "label": "Няма следа от натрупване",
     "reasons": [],
     "tranche2": false
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      "name": "Operating Leverage Turning Point",
      "horizon": "1–2 тримесечия",
      "mechanism": "Приходите растат по-бързо от разходите; скок на оперативния марж над 200 б.п.",
      "status": "active",
      "margin_now": 66.23710000935347,
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      "delta_bps": 539.37651784697,
      "revenue_growth": 105.85114348672526,
      "cost_growth": 77.49549254220621,
      "detail": "Оперативен марж 66.2% срещу 60.8% преди година (+539 б.п.); приходи +105.9% срещу разходи +77.5%."
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     {
      "key": "capital_allocation",
      "name": "Capital Allocation Shift",
      "horizon": "3–6 месеца",
      "mechanism": "Прекратяване на разводняващи M&A и насочване на FCF към обратни изкупувания при P/E < 15.",
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      "buyback_to_fcf": 31.562288395823817,
      "mna_to_fcf": 11.444341212226195,
      "share_change": -0.7067859623319905,
      "buyback_yield": 0.7958206682668353,
      "detail": "Обратни изкупувания = 32% от FCF, M&A = 11% от FCF, P/E 26.4, брой акции -0.7% YoY."
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     {
      "key": "spinoff",
      "name": "Corporate Spin-Off / Asset Carve-Out",
      "horizon": "6–12 месеца",
      "mechanism": "Отделяне на звено; пазарът премахва „конгломератната отстъпка“.",
      "status": "unknown",
      "detail": "Новините не са достъпни в момента.",
      "headlines": []
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     {
      "key": "squeeze",
      "name": "Short Squeeze / Fundamental De-risking",
      "horizon": "1–3 месеца",
      "mechanism": "Short float > 15%, Days to Cover > 5 + положителен отчет, който опровергава мечата теза.",
      "status": "none",
      "short_float": 1.2999999,
      "days_to_cover": 2.84,
      "last_surprise": 6.16,
      "detail": "Short float 1.3%, Days to Cover 2.8, последна изненада в печалбата +6.2%."
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    ],
    "active": [
     "Operating Leverage Turning Point"
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    "events": [
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      "type": "Отчет (Earnings)",
      "date": "2026-11-17",
      "extra": "EPS консенсус 2.47325, приходи 108976833310",
      "days": 14
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     {
      "type": "Месечен опционен падеж (OPEX)",
      "date": "2026-11-20",
      "extra": "Повишена волатилност около гама нивата",
      "days": 17
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    "summary": "Активни катализатори: Operating Leverage Turning Point"
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 "as_of": "2026-11-03T17:21:48.564595Z"
}