{ "symbol": "GOOGL", "fx": { "cur": "USD", "eurusd": 1.1198208332061768, "to_usd": 1.0, "to_eur": 0.8929999963805676 }, "analysis": { "levels": { "support": [], "resistance": [ 351.6000061035156, 359.3999938964844, 364.1700134277344 ], "sma50": 336.4034991455078, "sma200": 340.13852432250974, "low52": 270.70001220703125, "high52": 408.6099853515625, "bb_lower": 274.0794144107782, "bb_mid": 327.17225036621096, "zones": [ { "name": "Агресивно натрупване", "rule": "MoS > +30%", "price_max": 111.07791770956686, "color": "g" }, { "name": "Натрупване (BUY)", "rule": "MoS ≥ +20%", "price_max": 126.94619166807644, "color": "g" }, { "name": "Задържане / DCA", "rule": "−10% ≤ MoS ≤ +10%", "price_max": 174.5510135436051, "price_min": 142.81446562658599, "color": "y" }, { "name": "Частична печалба", "rule": "цена > FV +25%", "price_min": 198.35342448136942, "color": "r" }, { "name": "Изход / хеджиране", "rule": "цена > FV +40%", "price_min": 222.15583541913372, "color": "r" } ] }, "strategies": [ { "key": "value", "name": "Стойностна (Value / Margin of Safety)", "description": "Купува се със защитен марж под справедливата цена и се държи до сближаване. Дълъг хоризонт, малко сделки.", "horizon_months": 24, "entry": 126.94619166807644, "stop": 95.20964375105733, "target": 158.68273958509553, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Изчакайте цена ≤ 126.95 (MoS ≥ 20%). Сега MoS е -77%.", "trigger": 126.94619166807644, "stats": { "p_fill": 0.12966666666666668, "p_target": 0.3110539845758355, "p_stop": 0.30848329048843187, "p_open": 0.38046272493573263, "exp_return": -1.142919006628032, "kelly": 0.20746887966803795, "rr": 0.9999999999999996 }, "risk": "Нисък–Среден" }, { "key": "trend", "name": "Тренд / Momentum (Trend Following)", "description": "Купува се в потвърден възходящ тренд, с плаващ stop на 2.5×ATR и цел 2R. Средносрочно, повече сделки, по-ниска успеваемост, по-висок коефициент печалба/загуба.", "horizon_months": 6, "entry": 280.4750061035156, "stop": 255.94050373250928, "target": 329.5440108455283, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Няма потвърден възходящ тренд (изисква 50>200 SMA, цена>200 SMA, ADX>20).", "trigger": 340.13852432250974, "stats": { "p_fill": 1.0, "p_target": 0.36916666666666664, "p_stop": 0.6143333333333333, "p_open": 0.0165, "exp_return": 1.1295500458451537, "kelly": 3.152008134214543, "rr": 2.0 }, "risk": "Среден–Висок" }, { "key": "reversion", "name": "Контрариан / Mean Reversion (краткосрочен swing)", "description": "Купува се препродадена акция около подкрепа и се продава при връщане към средната. Кратък хоризонт, строг stop.", "horizon_months": 3, "entry": 280.4750061035156, "stop": 260.84740420671056, "target": 327.17225036621096, "applicable": true, "status_reason": "RSI/Болинджър показват препродаденост.", "trigger": 280.4750061035156, "stats": { "p_fill": 1.0, "p_target": 0.28983333333333333, "p_stop": 0.6173333333333333, "p_open": 0.09283333333333334, "exp_return": 0.9270891784498423, "kelly": 1.673243614213618, "rr": 2.379161983629626 }, "risk": "Висок" }, { "key": "dca", "name": "Редовно натрупване (DCA) + доход", "description": "Равни месечни вноски за 12 месеца – изглажда входа и намалява риска от лош момент. Подходящо при несигурност.", "horizon_months": 12, "entry": 290.0486346263325, "stop": null, "target": null, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Препоръчва се само с половин размер: акцията е силно надценена (MoS < −25%).", "trigger": null, "risk": "Нисък–Среден", "stats": { "avg_cost": 290.0486346263325, "p_profit": 50.0, "exp_return": 1.7475007502166864, "worst5": -31.940227816059082, "dividend_yield": 0.313753447134329, "tranches": 12 } } ], "scenarios": { "1": { "exp_price": 281.42415711375884, "exp_return": 0.3384084105850591, "p_profit": 49.225, "p_loss20": 1.7375000000000003, "p_gain30": 0.5125000000000001, "var95": -15.632351842643846, "cvar95": -19.161181290824697, "annualized": 4.1373434222988115 }, "3": { "exp_price": 284.6358313831168, "exp_return": 1.4834923572710572, "p_profit": 49.5875, "p_loss20": 11.125, "p_gain30": 7.3, "var95": -25.277627743194238, "cvar95": -30.563898941658053, "annualized": 6.067325164897164 }, "6": { "exp_price": 292.9379084647348, "exp_return": 4.443498383103519, "p_profit": 51.849999999999994, "p_loss20": 17.8625, "p_gain30": 16.287499999999998, "var95": -34.137327459982316, "cvar95": -40.24389763526805, "annualized": 9.084443545013476 }, "12": { "exp_price": 302.2024691524331, "exp_return": 7.746666396683668, "p_profit": 51.8625, "p_loss20": 25.887500000000003, "p_gain30": 24.087500000000002, "var95": -44.72968508084774, "cvar95": -52.49056445664226, "annualized": 7.746666396683666 }, "24": { "exp_price": 309.9552720532027, "exp_return": 10.510835300171712, "p_profit": 47.575, "p_loss20": 35.65, "p_gain30": 28.375, "var95": -58.170980087956345, "cvar95": -65.74127463310595, "annualized": 5.124133908523465 }, "36": { "exp_price": 309.72934438845334, "exp_return": 10.430283500605663, "p_profit": 44.224999999999994, "p_loss20": 41.862500000000004, "p_gain30": 28.050000000000004, "var95": -67.91082519564185, "cvar95": -74.8216016241162, "annualized": 3.362434334848574 } }, "risk": { "ann_return": 25.460404597287077, "vol": 33.289366147104296, "sharpe": 0.616004657778248, "sortino": 0.8922875984631672, "max_drawdown": -30.70637484033263, "calmar": 0.8291569659289445, "var95_1m": -11.498545104918241, "cvar95_1m": -14.315524023389095, "beta": 1.226 }, "confidence": { "label": "ниска", "why": "моделите се разминават силно (разлика 371% от медианата)." }, "narrative": [ { "kind": "val", "text": "Според ансамбъла от 4 модела акцията е силно надценена (справедлива цена ≈ 158.68, MoS -77%). Увереност в оценката: ниска – моделите се разминават силно (разлика 371% от медианата)." }, { "kind": "val", "text": "EV/EBITDA е 10.6, P/E 14.6, PEG 1.01." }, { "kind": "quality", "text": "ROIC е 52.4% срещу цена на капитала ≈ 11.0% – бизнесът създава стойност." }, { "kind": "quality", "text": "Оперативният марж е 33%, нетният 50%, FCF марж 4%." }, { "kind": "safety", "text": "Финансова устойчивост: Piotroski 6.0/9, Altman Z 14.9" }, { "kind": "safety", "text": "Нетният дълг е 0.0× EBITDA, лихвите са покрити 95×." }, { "kind": "growth", "text": "Приходите растат със 13% годишно (3 г.), печалбата на акция със 33%." }, { "kind": "tech", "text": "Технически: RSI 23, цената е -16.6% спрямо SMA50 и -17.5% спрямо SMA200, ADX 30." }, { "kind": "risk", "text": "Риск: годишна волатилност 33%, максимален спад за 2 г. -31%, VaR 95% за месец -11% (CVaR -14%)." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Пазарът залага ~54% годишен ръст на FCF срещу исторически ~7% – риск от разочарование." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Активни сигнали за продажба: mos_lt_-25." } ], "verdict": { "score": 38.5, "action": "ИЗБЯГВАЙТЕ / НАМАЛЕТЕ – надценена или с червен флаг", "tone": "r" }, "history": { "dates": [ "2024-11-04", "2024-11-05", "2024-11-06", "2024-11-07", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-11", "2024-11-12", "2024-11-13", "2024-11-14", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-18", "2024-11-19", "2024-11-20", "2024-11-21", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-25", "2024-11-26", "2024-11-27", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-02", "2024-12-03", "2024-12-04", "2024-12-05", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-09", "2024-12-10", "2024-12-11", "2024-12-12", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-16", "2024-12-17", "2024-12-18", "2024-12-19", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-23", "2024-12-24", "2024-12-26", "2024-12-27", "2024-12-30", "2024-12-31", "2025-01-02", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-06", "2025-01-07", "2025-01-08", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-13", "2025-01-14", "2025-01-15", "2025-01-16", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-21", "2025-01-22", "2025-01-23", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-27", "2025-01-28", "2025-01-29", 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"Ако акцията ви интересува, проследете я за промяна във фундамента." ], "note": "Стопът се избира от три варианта по най-добро съотношение очаквана нетна печалба / опашков риск (CVaR 5%). Нивата на Транш 2 и 3 са пропорционални на стопа, за да остават над него. Всички резултати са след такси, плъзгане и данък. Катализаторите са автоматични прокси – потвърдете ги с новини и отчети." }, "fan": [ { "m": 0, "p10": 280.4750061035156, "p25": 280.4750061035156, "p50": 280.4750061035156, "p75": 280.4750061035156, "p90": 280.4750061035156 }, { "m": 1, "p10": 245.0296311709081, "p25": 261.1351666846489, "p50": 280.27312027867345, "p75": 300.8136473844049, "p90": 320.5858066037452 }, { "m": 2, "p10": 231.59608195944065, "p25": 253.4134282132048, "p50": 280.07137977118714, "p75": 309.5336277955345, "p90": 338.69302582015916 }, { "m": 3, "p10": 221.75254116694737, "p25": 247.60202377549442, "p50": 279.8697844764573, "p75": 316.3427142821715, "p90": 353.2184833179872 }, { "m": 4, "p10": 214.42732931247937, "p25": 243.54187594802553, "p50": 280.54712402346274, "p75": 323.17517671840994, "p90": 367.0553051711939 }, { "m": 5, "p10": 208.56124400081072, "p25": 240.46597422844894, "p50": 281.6675986344535, "p75": 329.92874095828506, "p90": 380.39970705291336 }, { "m": 6, "p10": 203.79336511945013, "p25": 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It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment provides products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. It is also involved in the sale of apps and in-app purchases and digital content in Google Play and YouTube; and devices, as well as the provision of YouTube consumer subscription services, such as YouTube TV, YouTube Music and Premium, NFL Sunday Ticket, and Google One. The Google Cloud segment offers consumption-based fees and subscriptions for AI solutions, including AI infrastructure, Vertex AI platform, and Gemini enterprise. It also provides cybersecurity, and data and analytics services; Google Workspace that include cloud-based communication and collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Calendar, Gmail, Docs, Drive, and Meet; and other enterprise services. The Other Bets segment sells transportation and internet services. Alphabet Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.", "website": "https://abc.xyz", "employees": 204757, "country": "United States", "city": "Mountain View", "exchange": "NasdaqGS", "industry": "Internet Content & Information", "market_cap": 3448159600640.0, "target_low": 300.0, "target_mean": 400.36792, "target_high": 500.0, "recommendation": "strong_buy", "analysts": 53, "beta": 1.226, "next_earnings": 1793217600, "financials": { "years": [ "2025", "2024", "2023", "2022" ], "revenue": [ 402836000000.0, 350018000000.0, 307394000000.0, 282836000000.0 ], "operating_income": [ 129039000000.0, 112390000000.0, 84293000000.0, 74842000000.0 ], "net_income": [ 132170000000.0, 100118000000.0, 73795000000.0, 59972000000.0 ], "fcf": [ 73266000000.0, 72764000000.0, 69495000000.0, 60010000000.0, null ], "eps": [ 10.81, 8.04, 5.8, 4.56 ], "total_debt": [ 59291000000.0, 22574000000.0, 27121000000.0, 29679000000.0, null ], "equity": [ 415265000000.0, 325084000000.0, 283379000000.0, 256144000000.0, null ] } }, "eu_listing": null, "modules": { "orderflow": { "gex": { "available": true, "expirations": [ "2026-11-04", "2026-11-06", "2026-11-09", "2026-11-11", "2026-11-13", "2026-11-20" ], "put_wall": 280.0, "call_wall": 370.0, "gamma_flip": 190.0, "total_gex": -1206339.9161343852, "regime": "Отрицателна гама – по-големи движения (хеджирането подсилва тренда)", "put_call_oi": 0.5615281948615282, "put_call_vol": 0.5252858843881287, "atm_iv": 34.741533608926304, "strikes": [ { "strike": 260.0, "net": -5630395.025958978, "call_oi": 271.0, "put_oi": 8211.0 }, { "strike": 265.0, "net": -10503109.127525361, "call_oi": 241.0, "put_oi": 12980.0 }, { "strike": 270.0, "net": -11592057.682743097, "call_oi": 4220.0, "put_oi": 13413.0 }, { "strike": 272.5, "net": -5547239.403740331, "call_oi": 49.0, "put_oi": 2659.0 }, { "strike": 275.0, "net": -27600182.113427024, "call_oi": 1539.0, "put_oi": 17375.0 }, { "strike": 280.0, "net": -16478977.217546754, "call_oi": 7621.0, "put_oi": 17666.0 }, { "strike": 282.5, "net": 16236109.157502543, "call_oi": 6699.0, "put_oi": 2268.0 }, { "strike": 285.0, "net": 29924680.327918686, "call_oi": 18019.0, "put_oi": 10899.0 }, { "strike": 287.5, "net": 16648028.952161768, "call_oi": 7786.0, "put_oi": 1450.0 }, { "strike": 290.0, "net": -5459638.903771553, "call_oi": 17491.0, "put_oi": 24105.0 }, { "strike": 292.5, "net": 6400019.857912859, "call_oi": 5172.0, "put_oi": 413.0 }, { "strike": 295.0, "net": 6367047.076218218, "call_oi": 14793.0, "put_oi": 8075.0 } ] }, "ats": { "available": true, "weeks": [ { "week": "2026-07-20", "ats_shares": 36774639, "total_volume": 188666800.0, "share": 19.491844352053462 }, { "week": "2026-07-27", "ats_shares": 36397286, "total_volume": 162151100.0, "share": 22.44652426039663 }, { "week": "2026-08-03", "ats_shares": 36983648, "total_volume": 166397500.0, "share": 22.226083925539747 }, { "week": "2026-08-10", "ats_shares": 21060441, "total_volume": 108759900.0, "share": 19.364159952335374 }, { "week": "2026-08-17", "ats_shares": 17791182, "total_volume": 96694100.0, "share": 18.399449397636463 }, { "week": "2026-08-24", "ats_shares": 19683686, "total_volume": 116146800.0, "share": 16.947247793309845 }, { "week": "2026-08-31", "ats_shares": 19959812, "total_volume": 123334800.0, "share": 16.183438899645516 }, { "week": "2026-09-07", "ats_shares": 18753695, "total_volume": 104333300.0, "share": 17.97479328268156 }, { "week": "2026-09-28", "ats_shares": 24490351, "total_volume": 134800300.0, "share": 18.167875739148947 }, { "week": "2026-10-12", "ats_shares": 21958380, "total_volume": 120272700.0, "share": 18.257160602530746 } ], "last_week": "2026-10-12", "last_share": 18.257160602530746, "avg_share": 18.945857820527827, "lag_days": 22, "top_firms": [ { "name": "UBSA UBS ATS", "shares": 3187503, "notional": 1116574806.18 }, { "name": "SGMT SIGMA X2", "shares": 2465858, "notional": 863386403.3493 }, { "name": "INCR INTELLIGENT CROSS LLC", "shares": 2197350, "notional": 769259099.063084 }, { "name": "IATS IBKR ATS", "shares": 1650473, "notional": 580070570.505 }, { "name": "EBXL LEVEL ATS", "shares": 1569971, "notional": 548850362.8433 } ], "note": "FINRA публикува ATS обемите със седмично/месечно закъснение – това е структурен индикатор, не сигнал в реално време. Отделните блокови сделки >$5M (prints) не са свободно достъпни." }, "footprint": { "cmf20": -0.2186356497567897, "ad_slope": -0.2186356497567897, "accumulation_days": 1, "distribution_days": 0, "updown_vol": 0.5097532041945658 }, "signal": { "score": 3, "max": 5, "label": "Смесен поток", "reasons": [ "1 дни на натрупване срещу 0 на разпределение", "цената е в долната трета на 52-седмичния диапазон", "цената е близо до Put Wall (твърда подкрепа от опциите)" ], "tranche2": false } }, "catalysts": { "trackers": [ { "key": "operating_leverage", "name": "Operating Leverage Turning Point", "horizon": "1–2 тримесечия", "mechanism": "Приходите растат по-бързо от разходите; скок на оперативния марж над 200 б.п.", "status": "watch", "margin_now": 31.805105936022947, "margin_prev_year": 30.512184159615423, "delta_bps": 129.2921776407524, "revenue_growth": 24.652648857796102, "cost_growth": 22.333305211057674, "detail": "Оперативен марж 31.8% срещу 30.5% преди година (+129 б.п.); приходи +24.7% срещу разходи +22.3%." }, { "key": "capital_allocation", "name": "Capital Allocation Shift", "horizon": "3–6 месеца", "mechanism": "Прекратяване на разводняващи M&A и насочване на FCF към обратни изкупувания при P/E < 15.", "status": "active", "pe": 14.6462145, "buyback_to_fcf": 231.47313515977112, "mna_to_fcf": 8.061984098850457, "share_change": -1.0072885103595164, "buyback_yield": 1.3256056938755423, "detail": "Обратни изкупувания = 231% от FCF, M&A = 8% от FCF, P/E 14.6, брой акции -1.0% YoY." }, { "key": "spinoff", "name": "Corporate Spin-Off / Asset Carve-Out", "horizon": "6–12 месеца", "mechanism": "Отделяне на звено; пазарът премахва „конгломератната отстъпка“.", "status": "unknown", "detail": "Новините не са достъпни в момента.", "headlines": [] }, { "key": "squeeze", "name": "Short Squeeze / Fundamental De-risking", "horizon": "1–3 месеца", "mechanism": "Short float > 15%, Days to Cover > 5 + положителен отчет, който опровергава мечата теза.", "status": "none", "short_float": 1.3300001000000001, "days_to_cover": 3.1, "last_surprise": -29.52, "detail": "Short float 1.3%, Days to Cover 3.1, последна изненада в печалбата -29.5%." } ], "active": [ "Capital Allocation Shift" ], "events": [ { "type": "Месечен опционен падеж (OPEX)", "date": "2026-11-20", "extra": "Повишена волатилност около гама нивата", "days": 17 }, { "type": "Изплащане на дивидент", "date": "2026-12-14", "extra": "", "days": 41 } ], "summary": "Активни катализатори: Capital Allocation Shift" }, "profitlock": { "rules": { "tp1_pct": 20.0, "sell_fraction": 35.0, "breakeven_plus": 1.0, "atr_mult": 2.5 }, "levels": { "wap": 255.74374304027975, "tp1": 306.8924916483357, "breakeven_stop": 258.30118047068254, "hh22": 359.3999938964844, "atr14": 9.81380094840254, "chandelier_now": 334.86549152547803, "initial_stop": 204.5949944322238, "tp2": 358.04124025639163 }, "baseline": { "expected": 0.4798194024307865, "median": 6.4023211947200105, "p_loss": 37.2, "p_ge20": 9.075, "p_tp1": 65.5, "p_tp2": 47.949999999999996, "p_stop_before_tp1": 28.325, "p_be_exit": 4.2250000000000005, "cvar5": -23.40613418104721, "worst5": -22.706127283516313, "best95": 27.05918912521473 }, "locked": { "expected": 0.225359197276347, "median": 6.567124817423304, "p_loss": 32.175, "p_ge20": 4.825, "p_tp1": 65.5, "p_tp2": 29.675, "p_stop_before_tp1": 28.325, "p_be_exit": 35.099999999999994, "cvar5": -23.40613418104721, "worst5": -22.706127283516313, "best95": 19.853354722451478 }, "hypothetical_target": false, "better": false, "note": "Chandelier Exit = най-висок максимум за 22 дни − 2.5×ATR(14). След TP1 (продава се 35%) стопът на останалите 65% се вдига на WAP+1% (Free Ride) и следва Chandelier. В симулацията ATR е приближен с текущия ATR% от цената." }, "scanner": { "passed": false, "reasons": [ "MoS -77% < 20%", "Piotroski 6.0 < 7" ], "result": null } } }, "company": "Alphabet Inc.", "sector": "Communication Services", "industry": "Internet Content & Information", "price": 280.4750061035156, "factors": { "1": 14.6462145, "2": 18.164938, "3": 1.0098, "4": 5.2282557, "5": 9.029314062191498, "6": 7.319410400044152, "7": 5.8696153969880935, "8": 10.607225424652032, "9": 11.628677082345819, "10": 171.19600955284346, "11": 174.61688360966224, "12": 19.204346400966855, "13": 1.8737028208122233, "14": 0.5726823084504219, "15": 7.320311296891376, "16": 60.857401220128295, "17": 33.321304696687314, "18": 50.03077915847658, "19": 67.65216579140646, "20": 4.191696844393311, "21": 52.37482265510641, "22": 56.757492203773495, "23": 39.59373808335896, "24": 59.023705881397504, "25": 0.791387596782024, "26": null, "27": 48.72317437136222, "28": 21.325998378499143, "29": 2300766.2741688928, 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