{ "symbol": "MSFT", "fx": { "cur": "USD", "eurusd": 1.1196954250335693, "to_usd": 1.0, "to_eur": 0.8931000142025401 }, "analysis": { "levels": { "support": [ 486.0, 477.1499938964844, 409.5799865722656 ], "resistance": [ 551.1500244140625 ], "sma50": 514.0584014892578, "sma200": 438.48364944458007, "low52": 349.20001220703125, "high52": 551.1500244140625, "bb_lower": 513.0856839442342, "bb_mid": 529.65400390625, "zones": [ { "name": "Агресивно натрупване", "rule": "MoS > +30%", "price_max": 193.907247105362, "color": "g" }, { "name": "Натрупване (BUY)", "rule": "MoS ≥ +20%", "price_max": 221.608282406128, "color": "g" }, { "name": "Задържане / DCA", "rule": "−10% ≤ MoS ≤ +10%", "price_max": 304.711388308426, "price_min": 249.309317706894, "color": "y" }, { "name": "Частична печалба", "rule": "цена > FV +25%", "price_min": 346.262941259575, "color": "r" }, { "name": "Изход / хеджиране", "rule": "цена > FV +40%", "price_min": 387.814494210724, "color": "r" } ] }, "strategies": [ { "key": "value", "name": "Стойностна (Value / Margin of Safety)", "description": "Купува се със защитен марж под справедливата цена и се държи до сближаване. Дълъг хоризонт, малко сделки.", "horizon_months": 24, "entry": 221.608282406128, "stop": 166.20621180459602, "target": 277.01035300766, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Изчакайте цена ≤ 221.61 (MoS ≥ 20%). Сега MoS е -88%.", "trigger": 221.608282406128, "stats": { "p_fill": 0.0785, "p_target": 0.2505307855626327, "p_stop": 0.21019108280254778, "p_open": 0.5392781316348195, "exp_return": -0.7290477908541119, "kelly": 4.377880184331795, "rr": 1.0 }, "risk": "Нисък–Среден" }, { "key": "trend", "name": "Тренд / Momentum (Trend Following)", "description": "Купува се в потвърден възходящ тренд, с плаващ stop на 2.5×ATR и цел 2R. Средносрочно, повече сделки, по-ниска успеваемост, по-висок коефициент печалба/загуба.", "horizon_months": 6, "entry": 520.8200073242188, "stop": 488.61031857097885, "target": 585.2393848306986, "applicable": true, "status_reason": "Златен кръст, цена над SMA200 и ADX > 20.", "trigger": null, "stats": { "p_fill": 1.0, "p_target": 0.3883333333333333, "p_stop": 0.6096666666666667, "p_open": 0.002, "exp_return": 1.037498502555999, "kelly": 4.183366733466931, "rr": 2.0 }, "risk": "Среден–Висок" }, { "key": "reversion", "name": "Контрариан / Mean Reversion (краткосрочен swing)", "description": "Купува се препродадена акция около подкрепа и се продава при връщане към средната. Кратък хоризонт, строг stop.", "horizon_months": 3, "entry": 513.0856839442342, "stop": 487.3179329416423, "target": 538.8534349468262, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Не е препродадена (RSI 49). Лимит вход при ~513.09.", "trigger": 513.0856839442342, "stats": { "p_fill": 0.8475, "p_target": 0.4367748279252704, "p_stop": 0.551819075712881, "p_open": 0.011406096361848575, "exp_return": -0.5787224108021335, "kelly": 0.0, "rr": 1.0 }, "risk": "Висок" }, { "key": "dca", "name": "Редовно натрупване (DCA) + доход", "description": "Равни месечни вноски за 12 месеца – изглажда входа и намалява риска от лош момент. Подходящо при несигурност.", "horizon_months": 12, "entry": 539.0860591539536, "stop": null, "target": null, "applicable": false, "status_reason": "Препоръчва се само с половин размер: акцията е силно надценена (MoS < −25%).", "trigger": null, "risk": "Нисък–Среден", "stats": { "avg_cost": 539.0860591539536, "p_profit": 51.38333333333334, "exp_return": 2.199581738566353, "worst5": -29.229896938655305, "dividend_yield": 0.752659257492721, "tranches": 12 } } ], "scenarios": { "1": { "exp_price": 525.7980049839623, "exp_return": 0.9558000057099839, "p_profit": 52.400000000000006, "p_loss20": 0.8, "p_gain30": 0.375, "var95": -13.880862712279447, "cvar95": -17.20123401527173, "annualized": 12.092174824972556 }, "3": { "exp_price": 538.1448320854043, "exp_return": 3.326451464526893, "p_profit": 54.225, "p_loss20": 6.825, "p_gain30": 7.187499999999999, "var95": -21.918713036777703, "cvar95": -27.023352357462116, "annualized": 13.984568305139966 }, "6": { "exp_price": 550.9876131671383, "exp_return": 5.792328523996155, "p_profit": 54.912499999999994, "p_loss20": 14.3125, "p_gain30": 15.962499999999999, "var95": -30.586124947329747, "cvar95": -36.544135496857706, "annualized": 11.920167745291321 }, "12": { "exp_price": 562.2047718221777, "exp_return": 7.946078091465536, "p_profit": 53.27499999999999, "p_loss20": 23.3125, "p_gain30": 23.3, "var95": -41.26990621518332, "cvar95": -48.926207069208914, "annualized": 7.946078091465525 }, "24": { "exp_price": 565.6427072865379, "exp_return": 8.60617858991277, "p_profit": 47.599999999999994, "p_loss20": 34.0875, "p_gain30": 26.974999999999998, "var95": -55.09155273094375, "cvar95": -62.66761511629533, "annualized": 4.214288171014613 }, "36": { "exp_price": 562.6339628078616, "exp_return": 8.028484869171509, "p_profit": 44.2875, "p_loss20": 40.5, "p_gain30": 26.825, "var95": -64.80313781861113, "cvar95": -71.88682827142642, "annualized": 2.607576089396413 } }, "risk": { "ann_return": 12.247731080346334, "vol": 28.673728210004278, "sharpe": 0.25423031298376725, "sortino": 0.38748037087408554, "max_drawdown": -34.910623756161144, "calmar": 0.3508310583589849, "var95_1m": -12.230404571838273, "cvar95_1m": -14.583136158707163, "beta": 1.045 }, "confidence": { "label": "ниска", "why": "моделите се разминават силно (разлика 138% от медианата)." }, "narrative": [ { "kind": "val", "text": "Според ансамбъла от 4 модела акцията е силно надценена (справедлива цена ≈ 277.01, MoS -88%). Увереност в оценката: ниска – моделите се разминават силно (разлика 138% от медианата)." }, { "kind": "val", "text": "EV/EBITDA е 17.3, P/E 27.2, PEG 1.50." }, { "kind": "quality", "text": "ROIC е 30.2% срещу цена на капитала ≈ 10.1% – бизнесът създава стойност." }, { "kind": "quality", "text": "Оперативният марж е 47%, нетният 41%, FCF марж 17%." }, { "kind": "safety", "text": "Финансова устойчивост: Piotroski 6.0/9, Altman Z 9.3" }, { "kind": "safety", "text": "Нетният дълг е 0.1× EBITDA, лихвите са покрити 56×." }, { "kind": "growth", "text": "Приходите растат със 16% годишно (3 г.), печалбата на акция със 23%." }, { "kind": "tech", "text": "Технически: RSI 49, цената е +1.3% спрямо SMA50 и +18.8% спрямо SMA200, ADX 23." }, { "kind": "risk", "text": "Риск: годишна волатилност 29%, максимален спад за 2 г. -35%, VaR 95% за месец -12% (CVaR -15%)." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Пазарът залага ~44% годишен ръст на FCF срещу исторически ~4% – риск от разочарование." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Активни сигнали за продажба: mos_lt_-25." } ], "verdict": { "score": 37.9, "action": "ИЗБЯГВАЙТЕ / НАМАЛЕТЕ – надценена или с червен флаг", "tone": "r" }, "history": { "dates": [ "2024-11-04", "2024-11-05", "2024-11-06", "2024-11-07", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-11", "2024-11-12", "2024-11-13", "2024-11-14", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-18", "2024-11-19", "2024-11-20", "2024-11-21", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-25", "2024-11-26", "2024-11-27", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-02", "2024-12-03", "2024-12-04", "2024-12-05", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-09", "2024-12-10", "2024-12-11", "2024-12-12", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-16", "2024-12-17", "2024-12-18", "2024-12-19", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-23", "2024-12-24", "2024-12-26", "2024-12-27", "2024-12-30", "2024-12-31", "2025-01-02", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-06", "2025-01-07", "2025-01-08", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-13", "2025-01-14", "2025-01-15", "2025-01-16", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-21", "2025-01-22", "2025-01-23", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-27", "2025-01-28", "2025-01-29", "2025-01-30", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-03", "2025-02-04", "2025-02-05", "2025-02-06", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-10", "2025-02-11", "2025-02-12", "2025-02-13", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-18", "2025-02-19", "2025-02-20", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-24", "2025-02-25", "2025-02-26", "2025-02-27", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-03", "2025-03-04", "2025-03-05", "2025-03-06", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-10", "2025-03-11", "2025-03-12", "2025-03-13", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-17", "2025-03-18", "2025-03-19", "2025-03-20", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-24", "2025-03-25", "2025-03-26", "2025-03-27", "2025-03-28", "2025-03-31", "2025-04-01", "2025-04-02", "2025-04-03", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-07", "2025-04-08", "2025-04-09", "2025-04-10", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-14", "2025-04-15", "2025-04-16", "2025-04-17", "2025-04-21", "2025-04-22", "2025-04-23", "2025-04-24", "2025-04-25", "2025-04-28", "2025-04-29", "2025-04-30", "2025-05-01", "2025-05-02", "2025-05-05", "2025-05-06", "2025-05-07", "2025-05-08", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-12", "2025-05-13", "2025-05-14", "2025-05-15", "2025-05-16", "2025-05-19", "2025-05-20", "2025-05-21", "2025-05-22", "2025-05-23", "2025-05-27", "2025-05-28", "2025-05-29", "2025-05-30", "2025-06-02", "2025-06-03", "2025-06-04", "2025-06-05", "2025-06-06", "2025-06-09", "2025-06-10", "2025-06-11", "2025-06-12", "2025-06-13", "2025-06-16", "2025-06-17", "2025-06-18", "2025-06-20", "2025-06-23", "2025-06-24", "2025-06-25", "2025-06-26", "2025-06-27", "2025-06-30", "2025-07-01", "2025-07-02", "2025-07-03", "2025-07-07", "2025-07-08", "2025-07-09", "2025-07-10", "2025-07-11", "2025-07-14", "2025-07-15", "2025-07-16", "2025-07-17", "2025-07-18", "2025-07-21", "2025-07-22", "2025-07-23", "2025-07-24", "2025-07-25", "2025-07-28", "2025-07-29", "2025-07-30", "2025-07-31", "2025-08-01", "2025-08-04", "2025-08-05", "2025-08-06", "2025-08-07", "2025-08-08", "2025-08-11", "2025-08-12", "2025-08-13", "2025-08-14", "2025-08-15", "2025-08-18", "2025-08-19", "2025-08-20", "2025-08-21", "2025-08-22", "2025-08-25", "2025-08-26", "2025-08-27", "2025-08-28", "2025-08-29", "2025-09-02", "2025-09-03", "2025-09-04", "2025-09-05", "2025-09-08", "2025-09-09", "2025-09-10", "2025-09-11", "2025-09-12", "2025-09-15", "2025-09-16", "2025-09-17", "2025-09-18", "2025-09-19", "2025-09-22", "2025-09-23", "2025-09-24", "2025-09-25", "2025-09-26", "2025-09-29", "2025-09-30", "2025-10-01", "2025-10-02", "2025-10-03", "2025-10-06", "2025-10-07", "2025-10-08", "2025-10-09", "2025-10-10", "2025-10-13", "2025-10-14", "2025-10-15", "2025-10-16", "2025-10-17", "2025-10-20", "2025-10-21", "2025-10-22", "2025-10-23", "2025-10-24", "2025-10-27", "2025-10-28", "2025-10-29", "2025-10-30", "2025-10-31", "2025-11-03", "2025-11-04", "2025-11-05", "2025-11-06", "2025-11-07", "2025-11-10", "2025-11-11", "2025-11-12", "2025-11-13", "2025-11-14", "2025-11-17", "2025-11-18", "2025-11-19", "2025-11-20", "2025-11-21", "2025-11-24", "2025-11-25", "2025-11-26", "2025-11-28", "2025-12-01", "2025-12-02", "2025-12-03", "2025-12-04", "2025-12-05", "2025-12-08", "2025-12-09", "2025-12-10", "2025-12-11", "2025-12-12", "2025-12-15", "2025-12-16", "2025-12-17", "2025-12-18", "2025-12-19", "2025-12-22", "2025-12-23", "2025-12-24", "2025-12-26", "2025-12-29", "2025-12-30", "2025-12-31", "2026-01-02", "2026-01-05", "2026-01-06", "2026-01-07", "2026-01-08", "2026-01-09", "2026-01-12", "2026-01-13", "2026-01-14", "2026-01-15", "2026-01-16", "2026-01-20", "2026-01-21", "2026-01-22", "2026-01-23", "2026-01-26", "2026-01-27", "2026-01-28", "2026-01-29", "2026-01-30", "2026-02-02", "2026-02-03", "2026-02-04", "2026-02-05", "2026-02-06", "2026-02-09", "2026-02-10", "2026-02-11", "2026-02-12", "2026-02-13", "2026-02-17", "2026-02-18", "2026-02-19", "2026-02-20", "2026-02-23", "2026-02-24", "2026-02-25", "2026-02-26", "2026-02-27", "2026-03-02", "2026-03-03", "2026-03-04", "2026-03-05", "2026-03-06", "2026-03-09", "2026-03-10", "2026-03-11", "2026-03-12", "2026-03-13", "2026-03-16", "2026-03-17", "2026-03-18", "2026-03-19", "2026-03-20", "2026-03-23", "2026-03-24", "2026-03-25", "2026-03-26", "2026-03-27", "2026-03-30", "2026-03-31", "2026-04-01", "2026-04-02", "2026-04-06", "2026-04-07", "2026-04-08", "2026-04-09", "2026-04-10", "2026-04-13", "2026-04-14", "2026-04-15", "2026-04-16", "2026-04-17", "2026-04-20", "2026-04-21", "2026-04-22", "2026-04-23", "2026-04-24", "2026-04-27", "2026-04-28", "2026-04-29", "2026-04-30", "2026-05-01", "2026-05-04", "2026-05-05", "2026-05-06", "2026-05-07", "2026-05-08", "2026-05-11", "2026-05-12", "2026-05-13", "2026-05-14", "2026-05-15", "2026-05-18", "2026-05-19", "2026-05-20", "2026-05-21", "2026-05-22", "2026-05-26", "2026-05-27", "2026-05-28", "2026-05-29", "2026-06-01", "2026-06-02", "2026-06-03", "2026-06-04", "2026-06-05", "2026-06-08", "2026-06-09", "2026-06-10", "2026-06-11", "2026-06-12", "2026-06-15", "2026-06-16", "2026-06-17", "2026-06-18", "2026-06-22", "2026-06-23", "2026-06-24", "2026-06-25", "2026-06-26", "2026-06-29", "2026-06-30", "2026-07-01", "2026-07-02", "2026-07-06", "2026-07-07", "2026-07-08", "2026-07-09", "2026-07-10", "2026-07-13", "2026-07-14", "2026-07-15", "2026-07-16", "2026-07-17", "2026-07-20", "2026-07-21", "2026-07-22", "2026-07-23", "2026-07-24", "2026-07-27", "2026-07-28", "2026-07-29", "2026-07-30", "2026-07-31", "2026-08-03", "2026-08-04", "2026-08-05", "2026-08-06", "2026-08-07", "2026-08-10", "2026-08-11", "2026-08-12", "2026-08-13", "2026-08-14", "2026-08-17", "2026-08-18", "2026-08-19", "2026-08-20", "2026-08-21", "2026-08-24", "2026-08-25", "2026-08-26", "2026-08-27", "2026-08-28", "2026-08-31", "2026-09-01", "2026-09-02", "2026-09-03", "2026-09-04", "2026-09-08", "2026-09-09", "2026-09-10", "2026-09-11", "2026-09-14", "2026-09-15", "2026-09-16", "2026-09-17", "2026-09-18", "2026-09-21", "2026-09-22", "2026-09-23", "2026-09-24", "2026-09-25", "2026-09-28", "2026-09-29", "2026-09-30", "2026-10-01", "2026-10-02", "2026-10-05", "2026-10-06", "2026-10-07", "2026-10-08", "2026-10-09", "2026-10-12", "2026-10-13", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-15", "2026-10-16", "2026-10-19", "2026-10-20", "2026-10-21", "2026-10-22", "2026-10-23", "2026-10-26", "2026-10-27", "2026-10-28", "2026-10-29", "2026-10-30", "2026-11-02", "2026-11-03" ], "close": [ 408.46, 411.46, 420.18, 425.43, 422.54, 418.01, 423.03, 425.2, 426.89, 415.0, 415.76, 417.79, 415.49, 412.87, 417.0, 418.79, 427.99, 422.99, 423.46, 430.98, 431.2, 437.42, 442.62, 443.57, 446.02, 443.33, 448.99, 449.56, 447.27, 451.59, 454.46, 437.39, 437.03, 436.6, 435.25, 439.33, 438.11, 430.53, 424.83, 421.5, 418.58, 423.35, 427.85, 422.37, 424.56, 418.95, 417.19, 415.67, 426.31, 424.58, 429.03, 428.5, 446.2, 446.71, 444.06, 434.56, 447.2, 442.33, 414.99, 415.06, 410.92, 412.37, 413.29, 415.82, 409.75, 412.22, 411.44, 409.04, 410.54, 408.43, 409.64, 414.77, 416.13, 408.21, 404.0, 397.9, 399.73, 392.53, 396.99, 388.49, 388.61, 401.02, 396.89, 393.31, 380.16, 380.45, 383.27, 378.77, 388.56, 388.7, 383.52, 387.82, 386.84, 391.26, 393.08, 395.16, 389.97, 390.58, 378.8, 375.39, 382.19, 382.14, 373.11, 359.84, 357.86, 354.56, 390.49, 381.35, 388.45, 387.81, 385.73, 371.61, 367.78, 359.12, 366.82, 374.39, 387.3, 391.85, 391.16, 394.04, 395.26, 425.4, 435.28, 436.17, 433.31, 433.35, 438.17, 438.73, 449.26, 449.14, 452.94, 453.13, 454.27, 458.87, 458.17, 452.57, 454.86, 450.18, 460.69, 457.36, 458.68, 460.36, 461.97, 462.97, 463.87, 467.68, 470.38, 472.75, 470.92, 472.62, 478.87, 474.96, 479.14, 478.04, 480.24, 477.4, 486.0, 490.11, 492.27, 497.45, 495.94, 497.41, 492.05, 491.09, 498.84, 497.72, 496.62, 503.51, 501.48, 503.32, 503.02, 505.82, 505.62, 511.7, 510.05, 510.06, 505.27, 505.87, 510.88, 513.71, 512.5, 512.57, 513.24, 533.5, 524.11, 535.64, 527.75, 524.94, 520.84, 522.04, 521.77, 529.24, 520.58, 522.48, 520.17, 517.1, 509.77, 505.72, 504.24, 507.23, 504.26, 502.04, 506.74, 509.64, 506.69, 505.12, 505.35, 507.97, 495.0, 498.2, 498.41, 500.37, 501.01, 509.9, 515.36, 509.04, 510.02, 508.45, 517.93, 514.45, 509.23, 510.15, 507.03, 511.46, 514.6, 517.95, 519.71, 515.74, 517.35, 528.57, 523.98, 524.85, 522.4, 510.96, 514.05, 513.57, 513.43, 511.61, 513.58, 516.79, 517.66, 520.54, 520.56, 523.61, 531.52, 542.07, 541.55, 525.76, 517.81, 517.03, 514.33, 507.16, 497.1, 496.82, 506.0, 508.68, 511.14, 503.29, 510.18, 507.49, 493.79, 487.12, 478.43, 472.12, 474.0, 476.99, 485.5, 492.01, 486.74, 490.0, 477.73, 480.84, 483.16, 491.02, 492.02, 478.56, 483.47, 478.53, 474.82, 476.39, 476.12, 483.98, 485.92, 484.92, 486.85, 488.02, 487.71, 487.1, 487.48, 483.62, 472.94, 472.85, 478.51, 483.47, 478.11, 479.28, 477.18, 470.67, 459.38, 456.66, 459.86, 454.52, 444.11, 451.14, 465.95, 470.28, 480.58, 481.63, 433.5, 430.29, 423.37, 411.21, 414.19, 393.67, 401.14, 413.6, 413.27, 404.37, 401.84, 401.32, 396.86, 399.6, 398.46, 397.23, 384.47, 389.0, 400.6, 401.72, 392.74, 398.55, 403.93, 405.2, 410.68, 408.96, 409.41, 405.76, 404.88, 401.86, 395.55, 399.95, 399.41, 391.79, 389.02, 381.87, 383.0, 372.74, 371.04, 365.97, 356.77, 358.96, 370.17, 369.37, 373.46, 372.88, 372.29, 374.33, 373.07, 370.87, 384.37, 393.11, 411.22, 420.26, 422.79, 418.07, 424.16, 432.92, 415.75, 424.62, 424.82, 429.25, 424.46, 407.78, 414.44, 413.62, 411.38, 413.96, 420.77, 415.12, 412.66, 407.77, 405.21, 409.43, 421.92, 423.54, 417.42, 421.06, 419.09, 418.57, 416.03, 412.67, 426.99, 450.24, 460.52, 441.31, 427.34, 428.05, 416.67, 411.74, 403.41, 397.36, 390.34, 390.74, 399.76, 393.83, 378.91, 379.4, 367.34, 373.94, 365.46, 352.83, 372.97, 368.57, 373.02, 384.28, 390.49, 386.74, 388.84, 383.34, 384.36, 385.1, 390.99, 384.93, 395.63, 401.1, 393.82, 402.29, 397.75, 390.34, 381.58, 381.7, 389.1, 393.35, 390.54, 451.1, 464.72, 487.65, 492.81, 487.46, 499.86, 499.99, 506.06, 503.81, 492.43, 496.88, 495.4, 480.35, 481.63, 484.31, 481.15, 483.24, 487.31, 491.71, 496.37, 505.06, 513.53, 507.29, 501.02, 496.82, 510.12, 499.7, 493.95, 491.65, 492.44, 495.63, 505.41, 497.12, 490.3, 497.75, 493.78, 501.61, 498.0, 500.59, 497.93, 516.17, 509.22, 508.96, 512.9, 512.8, 517.53, 525.18, 529.3, 529.76, 522.61, 535.07, 541.15, 543.45, 533.69, 539.44, 529.05, 533.52, 531.87, 532.95, 521.08, 524.51, 532.6, 531.33, 531.01, 530.14, 521.91, 507.12, 520.82 ], "volume": [ 19672300, 17626000, 26681800, 19901800, 16891400, 24503300, 19401200, 21502200, 30246900, 28247600, 24727000, 18133500, 19191700, 20780200, 24814600, 27691100, 23458900, 18332400, 16271900, 20207200, 18302000, 26009400, 21697800, 18821000, 19144400, 18469500, 19200200, 20834800, 20177800, 23598800, 22733500, 24444500, 22963700, 64263700, 19152500, 7164500, 8194200, 18117700, 13158700, 13246500, 16896500, 16662900, 20573600, 18139100, 15054600, 20201100, 17604800, 16935900, 19637800, 15300000, 26197500, 26085700, 27803800, 18389300, 15549500, 35647800, 23491700, 23581400, 54586300, 34161900, 25679100, 20532100, 16316700, 16309800, 22886800, 20817900, 18140600, 19121700, 23891700, 22758500, 21423100, 24114200, 23508700, 27524800, 26443700, 29387400, 19619000, 21127400, 32845700, 23007700, 29342900, 23433100, 23304600, 22034100, 32840100, 30380200, 24253600, 20473000, 19952800, 22474300, 19486900, 19185500, 18470500, 39675900, 21004500, 15775000, 16108400, 13766800, 21632000, 35184700, 19689500, 16092600, 30198000, 49209900, 50425000, 35868900, 50199700, 38024400, 23839200, 19251200, 17199900, 21967800, 21120200, 20807300, 19485000, 20545500, 22232300, 18973200, 16579400, 14974000, 36461100, 58938100, 30757400, 20136100, 15104200, 23295300, 23491300, 15324200, 22821900, 23618800, 19902800, 21992300, 23849800, 21336500, 15441800, 19216900, 18025600, 16883500, 20974300, 17086300, 13974800, 34770500, 16626500, 15743800, 14162700, 20131700, 15285600, 16469900, 15375900, 16399200, 18950600, 16814500, 15626100, 15414100, 17526500, 37576200, 24864000, 22305600, 17495100, 21578900, 34539200, 28369000, 19945400, 16319600, 13984800, 13981600, 11846600, 18659500, 16492100, 16459500, 12058800, 14927200, 15154400, 17503100, 21209700, 14066800, 13868600, 16396600, 16107000, 19125700, 14308000, 16469200, 26380400, 51617300, 28977600, 25349000, 19171600, 21355700, 16079100, 15531000, 20194400, 18667000, 19619200, 20269100, 25213300, 23760600, 21481000, 27723000, 18443300, 24324200, 21638600, 30835700, 17277900, 18015600, 20961600, 18128000, 16345100, 15509500, 31994800, 16771000, 14410500, 21611800, 18881600, 23624900, 17143800, 19711900, 15816600, 18913700, 52474100, 20009300, 19799600, 13533700, 15786500, 16213100, 17617800, 19728200, 22632300, 21222900, 15112300, 21388600, 14615200, 13363400, 18343600, 24133800, 14284200, 14684300, 14694700, 15559600, 19867800, 14665600, 15586200, 18962700, 14023500, 15532400, 18734700, 29986700, 36023000, 41023100, 34006400, 22374700, 20958700, 23024300, 27406500, 24019800, 26101500, 17980000, 26574900, 25273100, 28505700, 19092800, 33815100, 23245300, 26802500, 31769200, 34421000, 28019800, 25709100, 14386700, 23964000, 19562700, 34615100, 22318200, 22608700, 21965900, 14696100, 35756200, 24669200, 21248100, 23727700, 20705600, 24527200, 28573500, 70836100, 16963000, 14683600, 5855900, 8842200, 10893400, 13944500, 15601600, 25571600, 25250300, 23037700, 25564200, 18162600, 18491000, 23519900, 28545800, 28184300, 23225800, 34246700, 26130000, 37980500, 25349400, 38000200, 29291200, 29213900, 36875400, 128855300, 58566800, 42219900, 61424100, 45012400, 66289200, 53515300, 45480500, 44857900, 42491000, 40802400, 34091600, 32078800, 23223400, 28234000, 34015200, 43238300, 33884700, 43625500, 34405900, 51367200, 35474900, 38199200, 35808000, 39001300, 31123900, 30131900, 31706400, 25512100, 27263900, 26848000, 27733700, 26228300, 25908500, 25138800, 50853200, 29680100, 42733600, 31181200, 36836600, 37883400, 44797000, 45244400, 29417200, 24099100, 16146600, 21443300, 33064800, 30435300, 28111100, 35745800, 37504500, 45063400, 41642400, 48568200, 27582200, 32048500, 29378200, 38308000, 27457400, 30867300, 30438100, 38288300, 70909400, 31372400, 28066500, 25700900, 30285900, 34942400, 33383800, 35657900, 38594200, 29667100, 27077500, 50771200, 32564100, 33018700, 27864000, 31393500, 22390300, 30398000, 28901500, 47250500, 79654400, 53628900, 37036800, 39037000, 26899500, 34782200, 32086700, 35317300, 32576000, 47224100, 34865800, 32266400, 31506800, 41987800, 59714200, 45171100, 40647600, 44509900, 66179000, 186201600, 51229900, 44945700, 48065800, 42128900, 34224500, 29297500, 25908300, 31083200, 24644600, 28914900, 27863900, 36253700, 37047400, 33049800, 27915800, 24126600, 28142500, 30351800, 27659400, 27856200, 32367500, 47209000, 110160700, 60846000, 66762100, 50455500, 33388900, 36441500, 28846200, 31206100, 23049800, 29001500, 23039000, 16217600, 29635800, 24087600, 19961900, 20020800, 22510800, 17230800, 19519000, 20758900, 28688800, 29207300, 27208900, 21046900, 15336100, 24125900, 18101800, 18882300, 12889600, 16038800, 14510500, 23091900, 17794600, 16670300, 17841600, 39622300, 27959900, 21652800, 19445600, 16657600, 38193100, 19626900, 21341800, 27223300, 19731900, 17822300, 26604800, 21107500, 16790200, 20228700, 18500600, 18314900, 23852000, 22324300, 24151200, 24845700, 17994900, 14576000, 13940100, 21266600, 13671500, 19021000, 19532300, 28594200, 39333200, 35652000, 34624100, 8830691 ], "sma50": [ null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, 428.3066, 428.718, 429.0588, 429.5792, 430.0048, 430.4352, 430.7662, 431.2496, 431.5922, 431.3542, 431.3554, 431.2586, 431.1502, 431.1062, 431.1652, 431.0202, 430.8888, 430.5578, 430.2788, 430.0204, 429.5694, 429.1382, 428.6852, 428.1554, 427.4482, 426.6078, 425.6992, 424.714, 423.5734, 422.5678, 421.3058, 419.9888, 419.2614, 418.4586, 417.5928, 416.491, 415.3134, 414.2166, 413.1814, 412.456, 411.8, 411.0988, 410.3882, 409.568, 408.9458, 408.3162, 407.8404, 407.296, 406.7942, 405.844, 404.8602, 403.9234, 402.9962, 401.5344, 399.797, 398.073, 396.473, 395.3388, 394.1192, 393.5884, 393.0434, 392.5396, 391.7244, 390.8142, 389.6802, 388.8216, 388.065, 387.5822, 387.2384, 386.8508, 386.563, 386.2754, 386.488, 386.871, 387.4302, 388.0164, 388.7254, 389.4942, 390.4182, 391.4636, 392.6766, 393.9632, 395.0054, 396.153, 397.4642, 399.0244, 400.4668, 401.8986, 403.3268, 404.7694, 406.1426, 407.6458, 409.0966, 410.5992, 412.0334, 413.4492, 414.8996, 416.5078, 418.1512, 419.9936, 421.9382, 423.8718, 425.7282, 427.8488, 430.2128, 432.6604, 435.1172, 437.0274, 439.2026, 441.279, 443.4718, 445.676, 448.192, 450.6774, 453.3168, 455.9572, 458.4238, 460.6102, 462.8434, 465.0498, 467.2354, 469.3906, 470.999, 472.4058, 473.9164, 475.4512, 476.9854, 478.3274, 479.6702, 480.9026, 482.194, 483.3852, 484.574, 485.7534, 487.246, 488.5648, 490.2262, 491.684, 493.1792, 494.3822, 495.6758, 496.9376, 498.3152, 499.4874, 500.6776, 501.8036, 502.792, 503.5798, 504.2392, 504.9056, 505.5978, 506.1056, 506.6472, 507.1992, 507.8312, 508.3602, 508.9146, 509.3016, 509.6588, 509.7134, 509.7284, 509.7778, 509.837, 510.0162, 510.3924, 510.7228, 510.9492, 511.2172, 511.316, 511.645, 511.8676, 511.9918, 512.0784, 512.1066, 512.1018, 512.1928, 512.3506, 512.6394, 512.8368, 512.9662, 513.2634, 513.493, 513.7386, 513.9218, 513.471, 513.2698, 512.8284, 512.542, 512.2754, 512.1302, 512.0252, 511.943, 511.769, 511.7686, 511.7912, 512.0182, 512.5176, 513.1532, 513.554, 513.8254, 514.0214, 514.2228, 514.3252, 514.1324, 513.876, 513.8622, 513.9334, 514.0492, 513.9556, 514.2592, 514.445, 514.3526, 514.0876, 513.636, 512.8804, 512.0532, 511.4122, 510.9218, 510.593, 509.9692, 509.4802, 508.8502, 508.264, 507.7866, 507.3778, 506.9262, 506.1384, 505.4136, 504.6694, 503.8188, 502.7752, 501.818, 501.0006, 500.271, 499.7502, 499.2062, 498.6952, 498.1808, 497.6906, 497.1686, 496.5052, 495.6108, 494.657, 493.816, 493.0132, 491.945, 490.6892, 489.4018, 488.3, 487.1314, 485.924, 484.8346, 483.7818, 482.722, 481.8084, 481.0074, 480.2394, 479.6282, 479.195, 477.6614, 476.1174, 474.709, 473.1908, 471.906, 470.337, 468.8798, 467.612, 466.1674, 464.4146, 462.7166, 460.943, 459.3256, 457.7008, 456.0068, 454.131, 451.98, 450.1888, 448.5314, 446.9952, 445.3536, 443.7968, 442.353, 440.7774, 439.2726, 437.7534, 436.2046, 434.5594, 432.9028, 431.198, 429.3594, 427.686, 426.2154, 424.5942, 422.8044, 420.7724, 418.8702, 416.7394, 414.6166, 412.5226, 410.4704, 408.5164, 406.7226, 405.0196, 403.6066, 402.0414, 400.1682, 398.2492, 396.099, 393.8838, 392.9012, 392.1576, 391.9146, 392.0956, 392.2676, 392.7556, 393.216, 393.6024, 393.652, 394.057, 394.5166, 395.0752, 395.6272, 395.7908, 396.1104, 396.4382, 396.9764, 397.4756, 397.879, 398.147, 398.5454, 398.7298, 398.7554, 398.84, 399.0648, 399.3564, 399.5166, 399.8226, 400.1068, 400.441, 400.8506, 401.105, 401.6566, 402.8256, 404.2556, 405.4444, 406.3312, 407.4374, 408.35, 409.2654, 410.1982, 410.9662, 411.3696, 411.797, 412.323, 412.742, 412.8744, 412.9758, 412.8612, 412.9226, 412.5444, 411.7388, 410.9738, 409.94, 408.9446, 408.2688, 407.5954, 406.6718, 406.1336, 405.308, 404.4988, 403.6158, 402.9464, 402.4894, 402.1132, 401.8628, 401.5116, 401.2782, 400.8178, 400.3222, 399.7006, 399.1792, 398.857, 398.5354, 397.9078, 398.459, 399.405, 400.7368, 402.2112, 403.589, 405.2656, 407.012, 408.5934, 409.6648, 410.303, 411.4144, 412.7756, 413.8216, 415.1208, 416.5722, 418.127, 419.8446, 421.784, 423.8034, 425.7356, 427.9602, 430.6526, 433.2104, 435.884, 438.3416, 441.2348, 444.1722, 446.5918, 449.0534, 451.4418, 453.6688, 455.9672, 458.1748, 460.204, 462.4922, 464.6806, 467.0108, 469.151, 471.4642, 473.5102, 475.8116, 478.1196, 480.253, 482.556, 485.0052, 487.7242, 490.5938, 493.3978, 496.126, 498.7674, 500.4468, 501.9754, 503.0914, 503.909, 504.9486, 505.5324, 506.203, 506.7192, 507.302, 507.875, 508.4276, 509.1716, 510.1912, 511.1788, 512.0954, 512.9106, 513.3882, 514.0584 ], "sma200": [ null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, 440.1757, 440.6547, 441.1076, 441.5404, 441.9614, 442.3822, 442.8177, 443.2293, 443.6432, 443.9837, 444.3997, 444.813, 445.2259, 445.6535, 446.1386, 446.6304, 447.0817, 447.4918, 447.9191, 448.3915, 448.8088, 449.199, 449.5626, 449.8847, 450.2241, 450.567, 450.9401, 451.2937, 451.6246, 451.975, 452.3599, 452.7075, 453.1448, 453.5717, 453.9435, 454.3375, 454.7087, 455.0853, 455.4907, 455.9344, 456.4109, 456.9063, 457.3922, 457.8558, 458.362, 458.8968, 459.5124, 460.1342, 460.6846, 461.1421, 461.6044, 462.0309, 462.4242, 462.6787, 462.9292, 463.2389, 463.6095, 463.9292, 464.234, 464.71, 465.1721, 465.5865, 465.9602, 466.2859, 466.5674, 466.8887, 467.2125, 467.5828, 467.9977, 468.3787, 468.7865, 469.127, 469.4573, 469.7925, 470.2065, 470.6466, 471.0499, 471.4686, 471.8986, 472.2878, 472.7273, 473.1648, 473.5796, 474.0248, 474.4828, 475.0163, 475.5541, 476.0763, 476.618, 477.1126, 477.5872, 478.0343, 478.4594, 478.9178, 479.3788, 479.804, 480.2246, 480.6606, 481.0611, 481.464, 481.8704, 482.2587, 482.6206, 482.9756, 483.4321, 483.9726, 484.5512, 485.0016, 485.503, 485.7282, 485.9407, 486.1288, 486.3268, 486.5589, 486.7317, 486.9033, 487.0993, 487.2292, 487.2918, 487.3451, 487.3815, 487.3895, 487.2605, 487.0764, 486.8817, 486.6375, 486.4158, 486.2279, 486.0429, 485.7603, 485.5073, 485.2623, 485.0226, 484.8047, 484.5551, 484.3113, 484.0773, 483.8274, 483.5858, 483.2601, 482.973, 482.6767, 482.3338, 481.9691, 481.5636, 481.1592, 480.6845, 480.1878, 479.6539, 479.0832, 478.5149, 477.9714, 477.4434, 476.915, 476.3892, 475.8495, 475.3341, 474.7695, 474.1733, 473.6338, 473.1121, 472.6885, 472.3027, 471.9564, 471.5913, 471.2179, 470.8939, 470.4896, 470.0951, 469.7118, 469.3415, 468.9487, 468.4585, 468.0026, 467.5122, 467.0188, 466.5383, 466.1158, 465.6621, 465.171, 464.6413, 464.1048, 463.5891, 463.1325, 462.5827, 462.0493, 461.4764, 460.9331, 460.4012, 459.8772, 459.3303, 458.8564, 458.4614, 458.1611, 457.7553, 457.2911, 456.8459, 456.3804, 455.9105, 455.4063, 454.857, 454.2874, 453.7309, 453.196, 452.6169, 451.978, 451.3494, 450.6594, 449.9892, 449.3415, 448.6147, 447.9875, 447.3285, 446.6885, 446.0604, 445.4361, 444.8246, 444.2187, 443.5931, 442.9253, 442.2785, 441.6873, 441.0612, 440.5042, 439.9524, 439.3485, 438.7702, 438.1604, 437.5334, 436.8546, 436.1202, 435.4458, 434.7883, 434.129, 433.8297, 433.5831, 433.4535, 433.3504, 433.2296, 433.161, 433.077, 433.019, 432.9354, 432.7947, 432.6611, 432.4805, 432.1719, 431.8723, 431.665, 431.4817, 431.3128, 431.1777, 431.1004, 431.0968, 431.138, 431.1756, 431.1687, 431.1181, 431.0857, 431.0854, 431.0465, 431.0473, 431.0699, 431.14, 431.2575, 431.4146, 431.5152, 431.5392, 431.5679, 431.6031, 431.6612, 431.7625, 431.8613, 431.9351, 432.0609, 432.1469, 432.2989, 432.446, 432.6174, 432.8309, 433.0749, 433.3408, 433.5697, 433.7531, 434.0039, 434.2754, 434.5525, 434.7824, 435.0441, 435.252, 435.5015, 435.7961, 436.0966, 436.3095, 436.5147, 436.7871, 437.0474, 437.3165, 437.6139, 437.9265, 438.1788, 438.4836 ] }, "benchmarks": { "returns": { "stock": { "1": -0.8301887757278137, "3": 6.843641827826796, "6": 26.603140926254266, "12": 0.5812961858242982, "24": 26.578529660296326 }, "sp500": { "1": -2.400840396833126, "3": -1.7639524511263605, "6": 4.519629299564687, "12": 10.922339141378279, "24": 31.205693580696668 }, "stoxx50": { "1": -1.563247155426628, "3": -5.505523928638977, "6": 2.8782895207458914, "12": 7.814806148876441, "24": 26.16311338305244 } }, "series": { "dates": [ "2024-11-04", "2024-11-05", "2024-11-06", "2024-11-07", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-11", "2024-11-12", "2024-11-13", "2024-11-14", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-18", "2024-11-19", "2024-11-20", "2024-11-21", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-25", "2024-11-26", "2024-11-27", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-02", "2024-12-03", "2024-12-04", "2024-12-05", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-09", "2024-12-10", "2024-12-11", "2024-12-12", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-16", "2024-12-17", "2024-12-18", "2024-12-19", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-23", "2024-12-24", "2024-12-26", "2024-12-27", "2024-12-30", "2024-12-31", "2025-01-02", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-06", "2025-01-07", "2025-01-08", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-13", "2025-01-14", "2025-01-15", "2025-01-16", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-21", "2025-01-22", "2025-01-23", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-27", "2025-01-28", "2025-01-29", "2025-01-30", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-03", "2025-02-04", "2025-02-05", "2025-02-06", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-10", "2025-02-11", "2025-02-12", "2025-02-13", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-18", "2025-02-19", "2025-02-20", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-24", "2025-02-25", "2025-02-26", "2025-02-27", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-03", "2025-03-04", "2025-03-05", "2025-03-06", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-10", "2025-03-11", "2025-03-12", "2025-03-13", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-17", "2025-03-18", "2025-03-19", "2025-03-20", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-24", "2025-03-25", "2025-03-26", "2025-03-27", "2025-03-28", "2025-03-31", "2025-04-01", "2025-04-02", "2025-04-03", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-07", "2025-04-08", "2025-04-09", "2025-04-10", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-14", "2025-04-15", "2025-04-16", "2025-04-17", "2025-04-21", "2025-04-22", "2025-04-23", "2025-04-24", "2025-04-25", "2025-04-28", "2025-04-29", "2025-04-30", "2025-05-01", "2025-05-02", "2025-05-05", "2025-05-06", "2025-05-07", "2025-05-08", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-12", "2025-05-13", "2025-05-14", "2025-05-15", "2025-05-16", "2025-05-19", "2025-05-20", "2025-05-21", "2025-05-22", "2025-05-23", "2025-05-27", "2025-05-28", "2025-05-29", "2025-05-30", "2025-06-02", "2025-06-03", "2025-06-04", "2025-06-05", "2025-06-06", "2025-06-09", "2025-06-10", "2025-06-11", "2025-06-12", "2025-06-13", "2025-06-16", "2025-06-17", "2025-06-18", "2025-06-20", "2025-06-23", "2025-06-24", "2025-06-25", "2025-06-26", "2025-06-27", "2025-06-30", "2025-07-01", "2025-07-02", "2025-07-03", "2025-07-07", "2025-07-08", "2025-07-09", "2025-07-10", "2025-07-11", "2025-07-14", "2025-07-15", "2025-07-16", "2025-07-17", "2025-07-18", "2025-07-21", "2025-07-22", "2025-07-23", "2025-07-24", "2025-07-25", "2025-07-28", "2025-07-29", "2025-07-30", "2025-07-31", "2025-08-01", "2025-08-04", "2025-08-05", "2025-08-06", "2025-08-07", "2025-08-08", "2025-08-11", "2025-08-12", "2025-08-13", "2025-08-14", "2025-08-15", "2025-08-18", "2025-08-19", "2025-08-20", "2025-08-21", "2025-08-22", "2025-08-25", "2025-08-26", "2025-08-27", "2025-08-28", "2025-08-29", "2025-09-02", "2025-09-03", "2025-09-04", "2025-09-05", "2025-09-08", "2025-09-09", "2025-09-10", "2025-09-11", "2025-09-12", "2025-09-15", "2025-09-16", "2025-09-17", "2025-09-18", "2025-09-19", "2025-09-22", "2025-09-23", "2025-09-24", "2025-09-25", "2025-09-26", "2025-09-29", "2025-09-30", "2025-10-01", "2025-10-02", "2025-10-03", "2025-10-06", "2025-10-07", "2025-10-08", "2025-10-09", "2025-10-10", "2025-10-13", "2025-10-14", "2025-10-15", "2025-10-16", "2025-10-17", "2025-10-20", "2025-10-21", "2025-10-22", "2025-10-23", "2025-10-24", "2025-10-27", "2025-10-28", "2025-10-29", "2025-10-30", "2025-10-31", "2025-11-03", "2025-11-04", "2025-11-05", "2025-11-06", "2025-11-07", "2025-11-10", "2025-11-11", "2025-11-12", "2025-11-13", "2025-11-14", "2025-11-17", "2025-11-18", "2025-11-19", "2025-11-20", "2025-11-21", "2025-11-24", "2025-11-25", "2025-11-26", "2025-11-28", "2025-12-01", "2025-12-02", "2025-12-03", "2025-12-04", "2025-12-05", "2025-12-08", "2025-12-09", "2025-12-10", "2025-12-11", "2025-12-12", "2025-12-15", "2025-12-16", "2025-12-17", "2025-12-18", "2025-12-19", "2025-12-22", "2025-12-23", "2025-12-24", "2025-12-26", "2025-12-29", "2025-12-30", "2025-12-31", "2026-01-02", "2026-01-05", "2026-01-06", "2026-01-07", "2026-01-08", "2026-01-09", "2026-01-12", "2026-01-13", "2026-01-14", "2026-01-15", "2026-01-16", "2026-01-20", "2026-01-21", "2026-01-22", "2026-01-23", "2026-01-26", "2026-01-27", "2026-01-28", "2026-01-29", "2026-01-30", "2026-02-02", "2026-02-03", "2026-02-04", "2026-02-05", "2026-02-06", "2026-02-09", "2026-02-10", "2026-02-11", "2026-02-12", "2026-02-13", "2026-02-17", "2026-02-18", "2026-02-19", "2026-02-20", "2026-02-23", "2026-02-24", "2026-02-25", "2026-02-26", "2026-02-27", "2026-03-02", "2026-03-03", "2026-03-04", "2026-03-05", "2026-03-06", "2026-03-09", "2026-03-10", "2026-03-11", "2026-03-12", "2026-03-13", "2026-03-16", "2026-03-17", "2026-03-18", "2026-03-19", "2026-03-20", "2026-03-23", "2026-03-24", "2026-03-25", "2026-03-26", "2026-03-27", "2026-03-30", "2026-03-31", "2026-04-01", "2026-04-02", "2026-04-06", "2026-04-07", "2026-04-08", "2026-04-09", "2026-04-10", "2026-04-13", "2026-04-14", "2026-04-15", "2026-04-16", "2026-04-17", "2026-04-20", "2026-04-21", "2026-04-22", "2026-04-23", "2026-04-24", "2026-04-27", "2026-04-28", "2026-04-29", "2026-04-30", "2026-05-01", "2026-05-04", "2026-05-05", "2026-05-06", "2026-05-07", "2026-05-08", "2026-05-11", "2026-05-12", "2026-05-13", "2026-05-14", "2026-05-15", "2026-05-18", "2026-05-19", "2026-05-20", "2026-05-21", "2026-05-22", "2026-05-26", "2026-05-27", "2026-05-28", "2026-05-29", "2026-06-01", "2026-06-02", "2026-06-03", "2026-06-04", "2026-06-05", "2026-06-08", "2026-06-09", "2026-06-10", "2026-06-11", "2026-06-12", "2026-06-15", "2026-06-16", "2026-06-17", "2026-06-18", "2026-06-22", "2026-06-23", "2026-06-24", "2026-06-25", "2026-06-26", "2026-06-29", "2026-06-30", "2026-07-01", "2026-07-02", "2026-07-06", "2026-07-07", "2026-07-08", "2026-07-09", "2026-07-10", "2026-07-13", "2026-07-14", "2026-07-15", "2026-07-16", "2026-07-17", "2026-07-20", "2026-07-21", "2026-07-22", "2026-07-23", "2026-07-24", "2026-07-27", "2026-07-28", "2026-07-29", "2026-07-30", "2026-07-31", "2026-08-03", "2026-08-04", "2026-08-05", "2026-08-06", "2026-08-07", "2026-08-10", "2026-08-11", "2026-08-12", "2026-08-13", "2026-08-14", "2026-08-17", "2026-08-18", "2026-08-19", "2026-08-20", "2026-08-21", "2026-08-24", "2026-08-25", "2026-08-26", "2026-08-27", "2026-08-28", "2026-08-31", "2026-09-01", "2026-09-02", "2026-09-03", "2026-09-04", "2026-09-08", "2026-09-09", "2026-09-10", "2026-09-11", "2026-09-14", "2026-09-15", "2026-09-16", "2026-09-17", "2026-09-18", "2026-09-21", "2026-09-22", "2026-09-23", "2026-09-24", "2026-09-25", "2026-09-28", "2026-09-29", "2026-09-30", "2026-10-01", "2026-10-02", "2026-10-05", "2026-10-06", "2026-10-07", "2026-10-08", "2026-10-09", "2026-10-12", "2026-10-13", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-15", "2026-10-16", "2026-10-19", "2026-10-20", "2026-10-21", "2026-10-22", "2026-10-23", "2026-10-26", "2026-10-27", "2026-10-28", "2026-10-29", "2026-10-30", "2026-11-02", "2026-11-03" ], "stock": [ 100.0, 100.734, 102.869, 104.155, 103.447, 102.338, 103.567, 104.098, 104.512, 101.601, 101.787, 102.284, 101.721, 101.08, 102.091, 102.529, 104.781, 103.557, 103.672, 105.513, 105.567, 107.09, 108.363, 108.596, 109.196, 108.537, 109.923, 110.062, 109.502, 110.559, 111.262, 107.083, 106.995, 106.889, 106.559, 107.558, 107.259, 105.403, 104.008, 103.192, 102.478, 103.645, 104.747, 103.405, 103.942, 102.568, 102.137, 101.765, 104.37, 103.947, 105.036, 104.906, 109.24, 109.364, 108.716, 106.39, 109.484, 108.292, 101.599, 101.616, 100.602, 100.957, 101.182, 101.802, 100.316, 100.921, 100.73, 100.142, 100.509, 99.993, 100.289, 101.545, 101.878, 99.939, 98.908, 97.415, 97.863, 96.1, 97.192, 95.111, 95.14, 98.179, 97.167, 96.291, 93.072, 93.143, 93.833, 92.731, 95.128, 95.162, 93.894, 94.947, 94.707, 95.789, 96.235, 96.744, 95.473, 95.623, 92.739, 91.904, 93.569, 93.556, 91.346, 88.097, 87.612, 86.804, 95.601, 93.363, 95.101, 94.944, 94.435, 90.978, 90.041, 87.92, 89.806, 91.659, 94.82, 95.934, 95.765, 96.47, 96.768, 104.147, 106.566, 106.784, 106.084, 106.094, 107.274, 107.411, 109.989, 109.959, 110.89, 110.936, 111.215, 112.341, 112.17, 110.799, 111.36, 110.214, 112.787, 111.972, 112.295, 112.706, 113.1, 113.345, 113.566, 114.498, 115.159, 115.74, 115.292, 115.708, 117.238, 116.281, 117.304, 117.035, 117.573, 116.878, 118.984, 119.99, 120.519, 121.787, 121.417, 121.777, 120.465, 120.23, 122.127, 121.853, 121.584, 123.27, 122.773, 123.224, 123.15, 123.836, 123.787, 125.275, 124.871, 124.874, 123.701, 123.848, 125.075, 125.768, 125.471, 125.488, 125.652, 130.613, 128.314, 131.136, 129.205, 128.517, 127.513, 127.807, 127.741, 129.57, 127.449, 127.915, 127.349, 126.597, 124.803, 123.811, 123.449, 124.181, 123.454, 122.91, 124.061, 124.771, 124.049, 123.664, 123.721, 124.362, 121.187, 121.97, 122.022, 122.502, 122.658, 124.835, 126.171, 124.624, 124.864, 124.48, 126.801, 125.949, 124.671, 124.896, 124.132, 125.217, 125.985, 126.806, 127.236, 126.265, 126.659, 129.406, 128.282, 128.495, 127.895, 125.094, 125.851, 125.733, 125.699, 125.253, 125.736, 126.522, 126.735, 127.44, 127.445, 128.191, 130.128, 132.711, 132.583, 128.718, 126.771, 126.58, 125.919, 124.164, 121.701, 121.632, 123.88, 124.536, 125.138, 123.216, 124.903, 124.245, 120.891, 119.258, 117.13, 115.585, 116.046, 116.778, 118.861, 120.455, 119.165, 119.963, 116.959, 117.72, 118.288, 120.213, 120.457, 117.162, 118.364, 117.155, 116.246, 116.631, 116.565, 118.489, 118.964, 118.719, 119.192, 119.478, 119.402, 119.253, 119.346, 118.401, 115.786, 115.764, 117.15, 118.364, 117.052, 117.338, 116.824, 115.23, 112.466, 111.8, 112.584, 111.277, 108.728, 110.449, 114.075, 115.135, 117.657, 117.914, 106.13, 105.344, 103.65, 100.673, 101.403, 96.379, 98.208, 101.258, 101.178, 98.999, 98.379, 98.252, 97.16, 97.831, 97.552, 97.251, 94.127, 95.236, 98.076, 98.35, 96.151, 97.574, 98.891, 99.202, 100.544, 100.122, 100.233, 99.339, 99.124, 98.384, 96.839, 97.917, 97.784, 95.919, 95.241, 93.49, 93.767, 91.255, 90.839, 89.598, 87.345, 87.881, 90.626, 90.43, 91.431, 91.289, 91.145, 91.644, 91.336, 90.797, 94.102, 96.242, 100.676, 102.889, 103.508, 102.353, 103.844, 105.988, 101.785, 103.956, 104.005, 105.09, 103.917, 99.834, 101.464, 101.263, 100.715, 101.347, 103.014, 101.631, 101.028, 99.831, 99.204, 100.237, 103.295, 103.692, 102.194, 103.085, 102.602, 102.475, 101.853, 101.031, 104.537, 110.229, 112.745, 108.042, 104.622, 104.796, 102.01, 100.803, 98.764, 97.282, 95.564, 95.662, 97.87, 96.418, 92.766, 92.885, 89.933, 91.549, 89.473, 86.381, 91.311, 90.234, 91.324, 94.08, 95.601, 94.682, 95.197, 93.85, 94.1, 94.281, 95.723, 94.239, 96.859, 98.198, 96.416, 98.489, 97.378, 95.564, 93.419, 93.449, 95.26, 96.301, 95.613, 110.439, 113.774, 119.387, 120.651, 119.341, 122.377, 122.409, 123.895, 123.344, 120.558, 121.647, 121.285, 117.6, 117.914, 118.57, 117.796, 118.308, 119.304, 120.381, 121.522, 123.65, 125.723, 124.196, 122.661, 121.632, 124.889, 122.338, 120.93, 120.367, 120.56, 121.341, 123.735, 121.706, 120.036, 121.86, 120.888, 122.805, 121.921, 122.555, 121.904, 126.37, 124.668, 124.605, 125.569, 125.545, 126.703, 128.576, 129.584, 129.697, 127.946, 130.997, 132.485, 133.049, 130.659, 132.067, 129.523, 130.617, 130.213, 130.478, 127.572, 128.412, 130.392, 130.081, 130.003, 129.79, 127.775, 124.154, 127.508 ], "sp500": { "name": "S&P 500", "values": [ 100.0, 101.227, 103.787, 104.558, 104.951, 105.053, 104.749, 104.773, 104.14, 102.765, 103.167, 103.576, 103.578, 104.132, 104.493, 104.808, 105.408, 105.007, 105.596, 105.855, 105.902, 106.543, 106.344, 106.609, 105.954, 105.64, 106.503, 105.926, 105.924, 106.326, 105.915, 102.792, 102.703, 103.819, 104.575, 105.73, 105.687, 104.519, 103.4, 102.957, 102.728, 104.022, 104.598, 103.437, 103.598, 102.002, 102.162, 102.279, 104.153, 103.932, 104.971, 105.891, 106.541, 107.107, 106.802, 105.244, 106.214, 105.717, 106.275, 105.739, 104.934, 105.692, 106.106, 106.492, 105.484, 106.192, 106.228, 105.939, 107.044, 107.036, 107.298, 107.553, 107.087, 105.259, 104.736, 104.246, 104.26, 102.606, 104.233, 102.399, 101.146, 102.275, 100.452, 101.007, 98.282, 97.538, 98.015, 96.654, 98.709, 99.342, 98.284, 99.345, 99.128, 99.21, 100.961, 101.12, 99.991, 99.661, 97.694, 98.235, 98.606, 99.27, 94.465, 88.821, 88.614, 87.223, 95.522, 92.217, 93.885, 94.631, 94.467, 92.351, 92.473, 90.294, 92.562, 94.104, 96.01, 96.718, 96.78, 97.342, 97.486, 98.1, 99.545, 98.909, 98.148, 98.575, 99.147, 99.076, 102.302, 103.043, 103.149, 103.575, 104.301, 104.392, 103.987, 102.309, 102.264, 101.578, 103.656, 103.078, 103.492, 103.483, 103.908, 104.511, 104.518, 103.967, 105.036, 105.132, 105.709, 105.419, 105.822, 104.626, 105.609, 104.727, 104.694, 104.466, 105.47, 106.643, 106.643, 107.498, 108.059, 108.617, 108.495, 109.01, 109.919, 109.055, 108.977, 109.638, 109.939, 109.576, 109.73, 109.296, 109.645, 110.235, 110.225, 110.379, 110.449, 111.312, 111.39, 111.832, 111.852, 111.521, 111.382, 110.97, 109.196, 110.805, 110.267, 111.07, 110.981, 111.847, 111.567, 112.832, 113.197, 113.231, 112.903, 112.892, 112.23, 111.957, 111.509, 113.203, 112.72, 113.186, 113.456, 113.814, 113.086, 112.303, 112.876, 113.818, 113.458, 113.697, 114.003, 114.343, 115.313, 115.257, 115.8, 115.651, 115.538, 116.092, 116.659, 117.173, 116.529, 116.197, 115.615, 116.297, 116.604, 117.081, 117.479, 117.551, 117.559, 117.988, 117.538, 118.223, 117.897, 114.701, 116.49, 116.308, 116.776, 116.041, 116.653, 117.898, 117.902, 117.272, 117.956, 118.888, 120.349, 120.624, 120.619, 119.424, 119.737, 119.943, 118.535, 118.968, 117.638, 117.787, 119.601, 119.849, 119.925, 117.939, 117.88, 116.8, 115.835, 116.27, 114.46, 115.585, 117.372, 118.436, 119.254, 119.893, 119.254, 119.547, 119.904, 120.033, 120.266, 119.847, 119.742, 120.551, 120.801, 119.513, 119.322, 119.038, 117.658, 118.591, 119.637, 120.407, 120.955, 121.345, 121.308, 120.884, 120.718, 119.83, 120.057, 120.82, 121.568, 121.15, 121.159, 121.944, 122.136, 121.899, 121.249, 121.562, 121.484, 118.978, 120.357, 121.017, 121.057, 121.663, 122.16, 122.15, 121.992, 121.467, 122.122, 121.095, 120.481, 119.005, 121.349, 121.918, 121.516, 121.51, 119.607, 119.666, 119.79, 120.457, 120.117, 120.95, 119.694, 120.61, 121.591, 120.939, 120.414, 120.462, 119.324, 120.25, 119.571, 117.983, 118.963, 118.709, 118.61, 116.803, 116.096, 117.272, 117.564, 115.965, 115.646, 113.895, 115.2, 114.769, 115.39, 113.382, 111.486, 111.046, 114.281, 115.1, 115.229, 115.739, 115.827, 118.732, 119.465, 119.329, 120.543, 121.963, 122.936, 123.257, 124.741, 124.445, 123.655, 124.948, 124.432, 125.424, 125.578, 124.964, 124.914, 126.193, 126.562, 126.048, 127.072, 128.926, 128.435, 129.517, 129.761, 129.553, 130.311, 131.308, 129.685, 129.59, 128.724, 130.113, 130.337, 130.822, 131.621, 131.643, 132.4, 132.688, 133.036, 133.208, 132.226, 132.763, 129.252, 129.636, 129.302, 127.208, 129.436, 130.087, 132.237, 131.485, 129.888, 131.297, 130.81, 128.932, 128.805, 128.792, 128.731, 130.244, 131.275, 130.993, 130.993, 131.942, 131.354, 130.984, 132.051, 132.606, 131.555, 132.05, 132.554, 131.878, 130.546, 130.294, 131.448, 131.268, 129.681, 129.746, 129.767, 130.04, 128.068, 130.195, 131.107, 133.046, 135.427, 135.2, 134.962, 135.797, 135.717, 135.281, 135.637, 136.52, 136.289, 135.576, 134.643, 134.927, 133.758, 134.339, 133.962, 134.39, 134.362, 135.33, 134.993, 134.545, 133.588, 134.203, 135.623, 135.113, 134.324, 133.674, 132.892, 134.035, 133.387, 132.787, 132.194, 133.698, 133.921, 135.92, 135.919, 134.893, 134.86, 135.548, 134.502, 134.277, 133.939, 134.2, 135.185, 136.082, 136.87, 136.569, 135.932, 136.74, 136.665, 136.634, 135.119, 135.559, 134.078, 134.625, 135.008, 135.788, 134.147, 133.452, 134.381, 135.183, 135.558, 135.145, 132.688, 132.011, 132.815 ] }, "stoxx50": { "name": "Euro Stoxx 50", "values": [ 100.0, 100.376, 98.939, 99.997, 98.983, 100.04, 97.786, 97.697, 99.617, 98.82, 98.727, 97.921, 97.478, 98.016, 98.701, 98.924, 98.143, 97.548, 99.017, 99.889, 100.544, 101.379, 102.05, 102.59, 102.748, 102.054, 102.21, 102.338, 102.388, 101.956, 101.865, 102.168, 100.554, 100.21, 100.017, 100.017, 100.017, 100.964, 100.354, 100.354, 100.354, 100.399, 102.773, 103.292, 102.974, 102.579, 102.104, 102.646, 103.714, 105.252, 106.105, 106.469, 107.29, 107.531, 107.569, 106.932, 107.082, 107.802, 108.864, 108.96, 107.539, 108.501, 108.636, 110.398, 109.755, 110.433, 111.105, 111.408, 113.363, 113.217, 114.05, 112.553, 112.55, 112.835, 112.4, 112.279, 113.93, 112.787, 112.602, 114.192, 111.03, 113.129, 113.775, 112.702, 111.024, 109.435, 110.456, 109.816, 111.378, 112.231, 113.044, 113.505, 112.342, 111.783, 111.617, 112.839, 111.533, 110.902, 109.878, 108.167, 109.649, 109.312, 105.383, 100.54, 95.967, 98.383, 95.261, 99.316, 98.663, 101.222, 102.439, 102.358, 101.716, 101.716, 102.254, 105.083, 105.418, 106.225, 106.562, 106.385, 106.35, 106.35, 108.926, 108.882, 108.476, 107.792, 109.003, 109.432, 111.135, 111.626, 111.363, 111.541, 111.859, 111.853, 112.418, 112.414, 111.797, 109.773, 111.61, 110.847, 110.847, 110.603, 110.376, 110.791, 111.398, 111.509, 111.914, 111.914, 111.609, 111.151, 110.485, 109.035, 110.047, 108.998, 108.549, 107.862, 107.621, 109.171, 108.242, 108.078, 109.759, 109.298, 108.869, 109.617, 110.12, 110.087, 110.714, 112.233, 112.081, 110.952, 110.691, 110.347, 109.191, 110.821, 110.452, 110.117, 109.035, 110.143, 110.369, 110.306, 110.006, 110.863, 111.151, 109.642, 109.642, 108.042, 108.192, 108.474, 109.892, 110.215, 109.887, 109.972, 111.05, 112.007, 112.294, 112.006, 113.008, 112.783, 112.573, 113.11, 112.198, 110.956, 111.149, 111.225, 110.297, 109.046, 109.746, 110.194, 109.605, 110.526, 110.649, 110.498, 111.019, 111.101, 112.125, 110.721, 110.668, 112.46, 112.496, 112.159, 112.784, 112.623, 112.217, 113.347, 113.494, 113.97, 115.027, 116.358, 116.48, 116.006, 115.695, 116.439, 115.941, 113.998, 114.758, 114.426, 115.518, 116.486, 115.566, 117.082, 117.203, 116.222, 116.822, 116.949, 117.703, 117.565, 117.595, 117.458, 116.693, 117.047, 116.655, 116.839, 115.644, 114.724, 116.742, 118.005, 119.274, 118.357, 117.347, 116.258, 114.068, 114.22, 114.794, 113.664, 113.944, 114.876, 116.559, 116.819, 116.805, 117.19, 117.363, 117.848, 117.968, 118.002, 117.852, 117.642, 118.587, 117.902, 118.557, 117.842, 117.097, 118.335, 118.719, 118.375, 118.491, 118.491, 118.491, 118.541, 119.458, 119.458, 119.458, 122.085, 122.252, 122.083, 121.686, 123.606, 123.994, 124.273, 123.762, 124.506, 124.265, 121.434, 121.244, 122.754, 122.59, 122.788, 123.546, 122.281, 121.431, 122.582, 123.813, 123.562, 123.049, 122.127, 123.625, 124.874, 124.628, 124.392, 123.89, 123.353, 124.108, 125.788, 124.887, 126.364, 126.006, 126.061, 127.23, 126.987, 126.51, 123.388, 118.953, 120.998, 119.183, 117.885, 117.17, 120.302, 119.426, 118.483, 117.817, 118.279, 118.902, 118.234, 115.699, 113.379, 114.885, 115.028, 116.431, 114.712, 113.473, 114.214, 114.79, 118.149, 117.328, 117.328, 116.099, 121.872, 121.52, 122.135, 121.7, 123.339, 122.428, 122.283, 124.847, 123.3, 122.22, 121.725, 121.488, 121.256, 120.779, 120.28, 119.876, 121.216, 121.216, 118.786, 120.971, 124.217, 123.094, 121.834, 121.503, 119.71, 120.794, 120.794, 120.108, 120.546, 120.59, 123.165, 122.84, 124.059, 124.98, 125.112, 124.794, 124.699, 124.378, 125.881, 124.762, 125.787, 124.937, 124.942, 124.683, 123.863, 124.832, 127.525, 128.386, 128.963, 129.842, 130.32, 130.074, 128.409, 128.083, 129.171, 128.224, 128.432, 130.42, 129.48, 131.087, 131.861, 130.25, 127.881, 129.516, 129.222, 129.243, 129.432, 129.131, 129.503, 128.416, 128.344, 129.545, 130.191, 127.989, 129.448, 129.474, 129.624, 128.786, 130.756, 131.036, 132.448, 133.689, 133.488, 134.015, 134.454, 134.697, 135.018, 134.663, 134.9, 134.779, 134.59, 133.307, 132.818, 132.356, 133.184, 132.89, 133.048, 133.36, 132.411, 133.667, 132.317, 131.262, 131.122, 131.543, 131.756, 132.173, 130.079, 129.201, 130.359, 129.024, 128.532, 129.15, 130.313, 128.526, 130.216, 130.35, 129.837, 129.274, 129.899, 129.867, 130.258, 129.202, 127.274, 128.573, 128.648, 129.268, 127.374, 126.27, 127.231, 127.805, 127.1, 127.581, 127.126, 127.867, 126.642, 126.165, 127.935, 125.451, 125.064, 126.053, 127.052, 127.116, 127.925, 126.364, 127.286, 126.637 ] } } }, "catalyst": { "rating": "AVOID", "verdict": "no", "worth": "Не си струва", "checks": [ { "key": "asym", "name": "Асиметрия R:R ≥ 3:1 (при избрания стоп)", "ok": false, "detail": "реален потенциал -42% до справедливата цена срещу стоп −20% → -2.1:1" }, { "key": "mos", "name": "Margin of Safety ≥ 25%", "ok": false, "detail": "MoS -88%" }, { "key": "cat", "name": "Катализатор (6–12 мес.)", "ok": true, "detail": "Цикличен обрат / разширяване на оперативния марж" }, { "key": "dq", "name": "Без дисквалифициращи рискове", "ok": true, "detail": "Altman, Beneish, дълг и капитализация – в норма" }, { "key": "entry", "name": "Сигнал за Транш 1 (MoS ≥ 20%, RSI < 40)", "ok": false, "detail": "RSI 49, MoS -88%" }, { "key": "real", "name": "Нетна очаквана печалба ≥ +8% и стоп ≤ 50%", "ok": false, "detail": "след такси и данък: +0.6% от капитала; стоп в 31% от пътищата" }, { "key": "edge", "name": "Побеждава пазара (rf + ERP)", "ok": false, "detail": "очаквана нетна +0.6% срещу пазарна ≈ 10.0% годишно → преимущество -9.3 п.п." } ], "passed": 2, "disqualifiers": [], "catalysts": [ { "key": "margin", "text": "Цикличен обрат / разширяване на оперативния марж", "directional": true } ], "tranches": [ { "n": 1, "alloc": 0.3, "price": 520.8200073242188, "trigger": "MoS ≥ 20%, катализатор, RSI(14) < 40", "goal": "Първоначална експозиция" }, { "n": 2, "alloc": 0.4, "price": 486.0, "trigger": "Тест на институционално ниво", "goal": "Сваля WAP към локалното дъно" }, { "n": 3, "alloc": 0.3, "price": 438.48364944458007, "trigger": "Капитулация – институционално ниво; VIX скок / фалшив негатив без промяна в тезата", "goal": "Максимален ефект върху средната цена" } ], "wap": { "all": 480.02241981061627, "t1_t2": 500.33593792603597, "t1": 520.8200073242188 }, "exits": { "tp1": 576.0269037727395, "tp1_pct": 20.0, "tp2": 672.0313877348627, "tp2_pct": 39.99999999999999, "stop": 384.01793584849304, "stop_pct": 20.0, "fair_value": 277.01035300766 }, "upside": -0.42292205202217603, "rr": -2.11461026011088, "vix": { "last": 20.459999084472656, "avg20": 17.55450005531311, "spike": false }, "sim": { "expected": 0.6132172797817534, "median": 6.573534837476085, "p_profit": 62.22, "p_ge20": 7.199999999999999, "p_ge10": 28.060000000000002, "p_loss": 37.78, "p_stop": 30.86, "p_t2": 74.66000000000001, "p_t3": 53.22, "p_tp1": 63.85999999999999, "p_tp2": 43.38, "worst5": -22.598043929845158, "cvar5": -23.345069431802006, "best95": 26.229229618141552, "invested_avg": 75.83 }, "cagr_table": { "15": [ 10000.0, 11500.0, 13225.0, 15209.0, 17490.0, 20114.0 ], "25": [ 10000.0, 12500.0, 15625.0, 19531.0, 24414.0, 30518.0 ], "40": [ 10000.0, 14000.0, 19600.0, 27440.0, 38416.0, 53782.0 ] }, "variants": [ { "name": "Тесен (−9%)", "stop_pct": 9.0, "rr": -4.974605248534676, "upside": -0.4477144723681208, "sim": { "expected": -0.5263788118983186, "median": -10.07249563192525, "p_profit": 41.839999999999996, "p_ge20": 9.62, "p_ge10": 18.360000000000003, "p_loss": 58.160000000000004, "p_stop": 63.12, "p_t2": 83.66, "p_t3": 75.68, "p_tp1": 46.160000000000004, "p_tp2": 29.12, "worst5": -12.458646480749355, "cvar5": -13.100055280497742, "best95": 27.30495783575994, "invested_avg": 86.16799999999999 }, "best": false }, { "name": "Адаптивен (−13%, ≈ 0.75σ за тримесечие)", "stop_pct": 12.520051319850173, "rr": -3.500627128884608, "upside": -0.43828031305295057, "sim": { "expected": -0.11953864892423194, "median": 1.9713734719225307, "p_profit": 50.8, "p_ge20": 12.22, "p_ge10": 20.04, "p_loss": 49.2, "p_stop": 51.04, "p_t2": 75.96000000000001, "p_t3": 71.96000000000001, "p_tp1": 54.82, "p_tp2": 35.699999999999996, "worst5": -15.595308848628072, "cvar5": -16.351026794623767, "best95": 27.54303273781602, "invested_avg": 81.97200000000001 }, "best": false }, { "name": "Широк (−20%)", "stop_pct": 20.0, "rr": -2.11461026011088, "upside": -0.42292205202217603, "sim": { "expected": 0.6132172797817534, "median": 6.573534837476085, "p_profit": 62.22, "p_ge20": 7.199999999999999, "p_ge10": 28.060000000000002, "p_loss": 37.78, "p_stop": 30.86, "p_t2": 74.66000000000001, "p_t3": 53.22, "p_tp1": 63.85999999999999, "p_tp2": 43.38, "worst5": -22.598043929845158, "cvar5": -23.345069431802006, "best95": 26.229229618141552, "invested_avg": 75.83 }, "best": true } ], "sizing": { "risk_budget": 2.0, "rec_pct": 10.0, "full_loss_pct": 20.0 }, "assumptions": { "commission": 0.1, "spread": 0.05, "fx": 0.25, "stop_slip": 0.3, "tax": 10.0, "market_expected": 9.95800018310547, "side_cost": 0.4 }, "hypothetical_target": true, "edge": -9.344782903323717, "entry_needed": null, "steps": [ "Не влизайте.", "Причина: справедливата цена е под пазарната (MoS < 0).", "Ако акцията ви интересува, проследете я за промяна във фундамента." ], "note": "Стопът се избира от три варианта по най-добро съотношение очаквана нетна печалба / опашков риск (CVaR 5%). Нивата на Транш 2 и 3 са пропорционални на стопа, за да остават над него. Всички резултати са след такси, плъзгане и данък. Катализаторите са автоматични прокси – потвърдете ги с новини и отчети." }, "fan": [ { "m": 0, "p10": 520.8200073242188, "p25": 520.8200073242188, "p50": 520.8200073242188, "p75": 520.8200073242188, "p90": 520.8200073242188 }, { "m": 1, "p10": 463.1386374217222, "p25": 491.046277990592, "p50": 524.0286095339013, "p75": 559.2262805325553, "p90": 592.9239355601092 }, { "m": 2, "p10": 442.7497110736876, "p25": 480.9450364991028, "p50": 527.2569788953737, "p75": 578.028466241163, "p90": 627.8940783941212 }, { "m": 3, "p10": 428.32711593302264, "p25": 474.01209360686937, "p50": 530.5052371876114, "p75": 593.7312791789186, "p90": 657.0581133310549 }, { "m": 4, "p10": 416.0938709554069, "p25": 467.75036880382476, "p50": 532.6958184762079, "p75": 606.6587093190482, "p90": 681.9731191196719 }, { "m": 5, "p10": 405.39504901944855, "p25": 462.0618158606785, "p50": 534.3551955348289, "p75": 617.9594703431634, "p90": 704.3388311862853 }, { "m": 6, "p10": 395.6776611681544, "p25": 456.65321538565246, "p50": 535.4783564377262, "p75": 627.9098899393354, "p90": 724.673385317529 }, { "m": 7, "p10": 386.5679478799088, "p25": 451.29249683733076, "p50": 535.9872812089651, "p75": 636.5768711668379, "p90": 743.1613696721314 }, { "m": 8, "p10": 377.9051481085159, "p25": 445.92018281576543, "p50": 535.9335054484063, "p75": 644.1168920602223, "p90": 760.044481266871 }, { "m": 9, "p10": 369.5551365112926, "p25": 440.4670977907859, "p50": 535.3171985078671, "p75": 650.5923017987245, "p90": 775.4309836512168 }, { "m": 10, "p10": 361.42498577421134, "p25": 434.8866805844425, "p50": 534.1403004659161, "p75": 656.0464445551602, "p90": 789.3916353642877 }, { "m": 11, "p10": 353.44870103721775, "p25": 429.14741623192486, "p50": 532.406511952781, "p75": 660.5112445009753, "p90": 801.9740718749425 }, { "m": 12, "p10": 345.57874274317896, "p25": 423.22832589122464, "p50": 530.1212747634154, "p75": 664.0117136890709, "p90": 813.2113790507027 }, { "m": 13, "p10": 338.9691704496706, "p25": 418.5837284662807, "p50": 529.1469988079675, "p75": 668.9140721580497, "p90": 826.0236350581399 }, { "m": 14, "p10": 332.53592021334094, "p25": 413.9228045767171, "p50": 527.9052427548443, "p75": 673.2751668829577, "p90": 838.0566681315488 }, { "m": 15, "p10": 326.2510278485712, "p25": 409.2322544031785, "p50": 526.397898946154, "p75": 677.1087690021852, "p90": 849.329885156832 }, { "m": 16, "p10": 320.09207033613995, "p25": 404.5018900975082, "p50": 524.6272604577863, "p75": 680.4263939263542, "p90": 859.858109344631 }, { "m": 17, "p10": 314.04094800489617, "p25": 399.7239837225715, "p50": 522.5960152864855, "p75": 683.2379499721544, "p90": 869.6528173423251 }, { "m": 18, "p10": 308.08298780984353, "p25": 394.8927852781487, "p50": 520.307239550094, "p75": 685.552214729761, "p90": 878.723052683888 }, { "m": 19, "p10": 302.20626980079186, "p25": 390.0041589220397, "p50": 517.7643897250427, "p75": 687.3771910748626, "p90": 887.0761134243137 }, { "m": 20, "p10": 296.40111223492846, "p25": 385.05530316710605, "p50": 514.9712939485086, "p75": 688.7203770724639, "p90": 894.7180784558138 }, { "m": 21, "p10": 290.6596717001294, "p25": 380.0445319183816, "p50": 511.93214241586975, "p75": 689.5889729437956, "p90": 901.6542160994454 }, { "m": 22, "p10": 284.9756280936763, "p25": 374.97110036029915, "p50": 508.65147690717725, "p75": 689.9900411291693, "p90": 907.8893050980658 }, { "m": 23, "p10": 279.34393320181704, "p25": 369.83506442534576, "p50": 505.134179479276, "p75": 689.930630765563, "p90": 913.4278892459644 }, { "m": 24, "p10": 273.76060763321, "p25": 364.6371657635313, "p50": 501.38546036297936, "p75": 689.4178747166505, "p90": 918.2744808932139 }, { "m": 25, "p10": 269.2708465754249, "p25": 360.7832658162785, "p50": 499.3548338006476, "p75": 691.1497113811578, "p90": 926.0387940668727 }, { "m": 26, "p10": 264.86776803844975, "p25": 356.9458911282088, "p50": 497.23402100055563, "p75": 692.6586852111319, "p90": 933.4532226076296 }, { "m": 27, "p10": 260.54584268647375, "p25": 353.1227575447026, "p50": 495.024242528351, "p75": 693.9484795446705, "p90": 940.5216301441659 }, { "m": 28, "p10": 256.30015593335605, "p25": 349.31192557122876, "p50": 492.7267663427333, "p75": 695.0225529046844, "p90": 947.2474387947498 }, { "m": 29, "p10": 252.12632851841536, "p25": 345.51175711661523, "p50": 490.3429065835312, "p75": 695.8841807389927, "p90": 953.6337099329318 }, { "m": 30, "p10": 248.02044943043495, "p25": 341.72087882971704, "p50": 487.87402231970145, "p75": 696.5364904525277, "p90": 959.6832124165834 }, { "m": 31, "p10": 243.97901891327666, "p25": 337.9381508214589, "p50": 485.32151625891856, "p75": 696.9824909419468, "p90": 965.3984805454863 }, { "m": 32, "p10": 239.9988997614259, "p25": 334.16263981708175, "p50": 482.6868334204684, "p75": 697.2250975902459, "p90": 970.7818635380514 }, { "m": 33, "p10": 236.077275477673, "p25": 330.393595977236, "p50": 479.9714597732035, "p75": 697.2671534853009, "p90": 975.8355679541353 }, { "m": 34, "p10": 232.21161414647887, "p25": 326.6304327764705, "p50": 477.17692084035343, "p75": 697.1114474764998, "p90": 980.5616942098744 }, { "m": 35, "p10": 228.3996370959527, "p25": 322.87270944460585, "p50": 474.30478027302394, "p75": 696.7607295668264, "p90": 984.962268111362 }, { "m": 36, "p10": 224.6392915937968, "p25": 319.1201155684232, "p50": 471.3566383942482, "p75": 696.2177240459436, "p90": 989.0392681618537 } ], "profile": { "summary": "Microsoft Corporation, a technology company, develops and supports a portfolio of technology solutions for individuals and businesses worldwide. Its products include operating systems, server applications, business solution applications, software development tools, desktop and server management tools, and video games; and devices, such as PCs, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other intelligent devices, and related accessories. The company's Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 Commercial, Enterprise Mobility + Security, Power BI, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Microsoft 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft 365 Copilot, and Windows Commercial on-premises and Office licensed on-premises. This segment also provides Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, including talent solutions, marketing solutions, subscriptions, and sales solutions; Dynamics 365, a set of cloud-based applications; and on-premises ERP and CRM applications. Its Intelligent Cloud segment offers server products and cloud services; cloud and AI consumption-based services, GitHub cloud services, health and life sciences cloud services, as well as virtual desktop offerings, and other cloud services; SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, and related client access licenses; and enterprise support services, industry solutions, Microsoft partner network, and learning experience. The company's More Personal Computing segment provides Windows OEM licensing and devices comprising Surface and PC accessories; XBOX hardware, and XBOX first- and third-party content and services; XBOX Game Pass and other subscriptions; XBOX Cloud Gaming, advertising, and other cloud services; and search advertising consisting of Bing, Copilot, Microsoft News, Microsoft Edge, and third-party affiliates. It sells its products through partners and retail networks. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, Washington.", "website": "https://www.microsoft.com", "employees": 223000, "country": "United States", "city": "Redmond", "exchange": "NasdaqGS", "industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "market_cap": 3867710586880.0, "target_low": 440.0, "target_mean": 633.1266, "target_high": 870.0, "recommendation": "strong_buy", "analysts": 53, "beta": 1.045, "next_earnings": 1793217600, "financials": { "years": [ "2026", "2025", "2024", "2023" ], "revenue": [ 331839000000.0, 281724000000.0, 245122000000.0, 211915000000.0 ], "operating_income": [ 155237000000.0, 128528000000.0, 109433000000.0, 88523000000.0 ], "net_income": [ 133749000000.0, 101832000000.0, 88136000000.0, 72361000000.0 ], "fcf": [ 66987000000.0, 71611000000.0, 74071000000.0, 59475000000.0, null ], "eps": [ 17.95, 13.64, 11.8, 9.68 ], "total_debt": [ 56826000000.0, 60588000000.0, 67127000000.0, 59965000000.0, null ], "equity": [ 442387000000.0, 343479000000.0, 268477000000.0, 206223000000.0, null ] } }, "eu_listing": null, "interpretation": { "factors": { "1": { "name": "Trailing P/E", "rating": "y", "text": "Над средното – пазарът плаща премия за растеж/качество" }, "2": { "name": "Forward P/E", "rating": "y", "text": "Скъпа спрямо очакванията, но в рамките на растежните компании" }, "3": { "name": "PEG Ratio", "rating": "y", "text": "Справедливо плащане за растежа" }, "4": { "name": "Price to Book", "rating": "r", "text": "Много висока премия над собствения капитал" }, "5": { "name": "Price to Tangible Book", "rating": "r", "text": "Цената е далеч над материалните активи – стойността е в нематериални неща (марка, софтуер)" }, "6": { "name": "Price to Sales", "rating": "r", "text": "Много висока – всичко зависи от бъдещите маржове" }, "7": { "name": "Forward P/S", "rating": "r", "text": "Много висока оценка спрямо очакваните приходи" }, "8": { "name": "EV/EBITDA", "rating": "y", "text": "Над средното за повечето сектори" }, "9": { "name": "EV/EBIT", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа по оперативна печалба" }, "10": { "name": "EV/FCF", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа спрямо свободния кеш" }, "11": { "name": "P/FCF", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпа спрямо свободния кеш" }, "12": { "name": "P/OCF", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерена до висока" }, "13": { "name": "Earnings Yield − 10Y", "rating": "r", "text": "Печалбата дава по-малко от безрисковата облигация – оценката разчита на растеж" }, "14": { "name": "FCF Yield", "rating": "r", "text": "Много нисък кеш доход спрямо цената" }, "15": { "name": "EV/Invested Capital", "rating": "r", "text": "Много голяма премия над вложения капитал" }, "16": { "name": "Gross Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висок брутен марж – типичен за ров (софтуер, марка, патенти)" }, "17": { "name": "Operating Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен оперативен марж" }, "18": { "name": "Net Profit Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен нетен марж" }, "19": { "name": "EBITDA Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висока кеш-генерираща способност" }, "20": { "name": "FCF Margin", "rating": "g", "text": "Отлична кеш конверсия" }, "21": { "name": "ROIC", "rating": "g", "text": "Изключителна възвръщаемост – типичен знак за ров" }, "22": { "name": "ROE", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висок ROE – проверете дали не е раздут от дълг или обратни изкупувания" }, "23": { "name": "ROA", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен ROA" }, "24": { "name": "ROCE", "rating": "g", "text": "Отличен ROCE" }, "25": { "name": "Asset Turnover", "rating": "g", "text": "Нормален оборот на активите" }, "26": { "name": "Inventory Turnover", "rating": "g", "text": "Бърз оборот на запасите" }, "27": { "name": "DSO", "rating": "r", "text": "Бавно събиране – следете за проблемни вземания" }, "28": { "name": "Cash Conversion Cycle", "rating": "g", "text": "Отрицателен цикъл – клиентите финансират бизнеса" }, "29": { "name": "Revenue per Employee", "rating": "g", "text": "Много висока продуктивност на служител" }, "30": { "name": "CFO / Net Income", "rating": "g", "text": "Кешът надвишава печалбата – висококачествена печалба" }, "31": { "name": "Current Ratio", "rating": "y", "text": "Тясна ликвидност" }, "32": { "name": "Quick Ratio", "rating": "g", "text": "Силна бърза ликвидност" }, "33": { "name": "Cash Ratio", "rating": "g", "text": "Добро покритие с пари" }, "34": { "name": "Debt/Equity", "rating": "g", "text": "Ниска задлъжнялост" }, "35": { "name": "Debt/Capital", "rating": "g", "text": "Малък дял на дълга във финансирането" }, "36": { "name": "Net Debt/EBITDA", "rating": "g", "text": "Комфортен дълг" }, "37": { "name": "Interest Coverage", "rating": "g", "text": "Лихвите са покрити многократно" }, "38": { "name": "Cash Flow to Debt", "rating": "g", "text": "Дългът може да се изплати за по-малко от ~3 години" }, "39": { "name": "Piotroski F-Score", "rating": "y", "text": "Смесена фундаментална динамика (4–6)" }, "40": { "name": "Altman Z-Score", "rating": "g", "text": "Безопасна зона – нисък риск от фалит" }, "41": { "name": "Beneish M-Score", "rating": "g", "text": "Няма признаци за манипулация на отчетите" }, "42": { "name": "Net Working Capital", "rating": "g", "text": "Положителен оборотен капитал – буфер" }, "43": { "name": "Debt Maturity (short-term share)", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерен дял краткосрочен дълг" }, "44": { "name": "Effective Borrowing Cost", "rating": "y", "text": "Нормално финансиране" }, "45": { "name": "Synthetic Credit Rating", "rating": "g", "text": "Инвестиционен клас (по покритие на лихвите)" }, "46": { "name": "3Y Revenue CAGR", "rating": "g", "text": "Много бърз ръст на приходите" }, "48": { "name": "3Y EPS CAGR", "rating": "g", "text": "Много бърз ръст на печалбата на акция" }, "50": { "name": "3Y FCF CAGR", "rating": "y", "text": "Бавен ръст на свободния кеш" }, "52": { "name": "Operating Income Growth", "rating": "g", "text": "Силен ръст на оперативната печалба" }, "53": { "name": "CapEx Trend", "rating": "y", "text": "Рязко растящи инвестиции – следете връщането им (ROIC)" }, "54": { "name": "Margin Expansion (bps/yr)", "rating": "g", "text": "Маржът се разширява – оперативен ливъридж" }, "56": { "name": "Dividend Yield", "rating": "y", "text": "Символична дивидентна доходност" }, "57": { "name": "Dividend Payout", "rating": "g", "text": "Устойчив дял на печалбата за дивидент" }, "58": { "name": "FCF Payout", "rating": "g", "text": "Дивидентът е сигурно покрит от кеша" }, "61": { "name": "Buyback Yield", "rating": "y", "text": "Малки обратни изкупувания" }, "62": { "name": "Total Shareholder Yield", "rating": "g", "text": "Добра обща доходност за акционерите" }, "63": { "name": "Net Share Dilution", "rating": "y", "text": "Броят акции е почти непроменен" }, "64": { "name": "SBC % of Revenue", "rating": "y", "text": "Значителен разход за акции като заплащане" }, "65": { "name": "Reinvestment Rate", "rating": "g", "text": "Умерено реинвестиране" }, "66": { "name": "RSI (14)", "rating": "y", "text": "Неутрален до силен импулс" }, "67": { "name": "MACD hist (% of price)", "rating": "r", "text": "Импулсът е отрицателен" }, "68": { "name": "Price vs SMA50", "rating": "g", "text": "Над 50-дневната средна – краткосрочен възходящ тренд" }, "69": { "name": "Price vs SMA200", "rating": "g", "text": "Над 200-дневната средна – дългосрочен възходящ тренд" }, "70": { "name": "Golden/Death Cross", "rating": "g", "text": "Golden Cross – 50-дневната е над 200-дневната" }, "71": { "name": "ATR % of price", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерена дневна волатилност" }, "72": { "name": "Bollinger %B", "rating": "y", "text": "В рамките на лентите" }, "73": { "name": "VWAP deviation", "rating": "y", "text": "Близо до средната претеглена цена" }, "74": { "name": "Relative Volume", "rating": "y", "text": "Слаб интерес (обем под нормата)" }, "75": { "name": "OBV trend", "rating": "y", "text": "Неутрален обем" }, "76": { "name": "ADX (14)", "rating": "g", "text": "Ясен тренд" }, "77": { "name": "Stochastic %K", "rating": "y", "text": "Неутрална" }, "78": { "name": "52-Week Range Percentile", "rating": "y", "text": "Близо до 52-седмичния връх – силен тренд, но по-малка защита" }, "79": { "name": "Historical Volatility 30D", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерена волатилност" }, "80": { "name": "Downside Deviation", "rating": "y", "text": "Умерени отрицателни колебания" }, "81": { "name": "Bid-Ask Spread %", "rating": "r", "text": "Скъпо за търгуване – широк спред" }, "82": { "name": "Short Interest % Float", "rating": "g", "text": "Малко къси позиции" }, "83": { "name": "Days to Cover", "rating": "g", "text": "Късите позиции се покриват бързо" }, "84": { "name": "Institutional Ownership %", "rating": "g", "text": "Добро институционално присъствие" }, "86": { "name": "Insider Ownership %", "rating": "y", "text": "Малко акции у вътрешните лица" }, "87": { "name": "Insider Net Buy/Sell L3M", "rating": "r", "text": "Нетни продажби от вътрешни лица (често планови)" }, "92": { "name": "EPS Growth Forecast", "rating": "g", "text": "Силен очакван ръст на печалбата" }, "93": { "name": "Revenue Growth Forecast", "rating": "g", "text": "Силен очакван ръст на приходите" }, "95": { "name": "Price Target Upside %", "rating": "g", "text": "Значителен потенциал според таргета на анализаторите" }, "96": { "name": "WACC", "rating": "y", "text": "Нормална цена на капитала" }, "97": { "name": "EVA spread (ROIC−WACC)", "rating": "g", "text": "Създава голяма стойност над цената на капитала" }, "98": { "name": "Beta", "rating": "y", "text": "Движи се като пазара" } }, "modules": { "1": { "summary": "Предимно тревожна картина: 0 благоприятни, 5 неутрални, 10 тревожни от 15 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 0, "y": 5, "r": 10 }, "tone": "r", "name": "Оценка и мултиплекси", "meaning": "Показва колко скъпа е акцията спрямо печалби, приходи и кеш. Високи стойности значат, че очакванията вече са в цената." }, "2": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 14 благоприятни, 0 неутрални, 1 тревожни от 15 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 14, "y": 0, "r": 1 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Рентабилност и ефективност", "meaning": "Показва колко ефективно бизнесът превръща приходите и капитала в печалба и кеш – основа на „рова“." }, "3": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 11 благоприятни, 4 неутрални, 0 тревожни от 15 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 11, "y": 4, "r": 0 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Баланс и ликвидност", "meaning": "Показва дали компанията може да издържи труден период – ликвидност, дълг и риск от фалит/манипулации." }, "4": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 4 благоприятни, 2 неутрални, 0 тревожни от 6 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 4, "y": 2, "r": 0 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Исторически растеж", "meaning": "Показва как са растели приходите, печалбата и кешът – дали бизнесът се развива или стагнира." }, "5": { "summary": "Смесена картина с превес на положителните сигнали: 4 благоприятни, 4 неутрални, 0 тревожни от 8 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 4, "y": 4, "r": 0 }, "tone": "y", "name": "Възвръщаемост за акционерите", "meaning": "Показва колко от създадената стойност стига до акционерите – дивиденти, обратни изкупувания, размиване." }, "6": { "summary": "Смесена картина с превес на положителните сигнали: 4 благоприятни, 10 неутрални, 1 тревожни от 15 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 4, "y": 10, "r": 1 }, "tone": "y", "name": "Технически индикатори", "meaning": "Показва какво прави цената сега – тренд, импулс и волатилност. Важи за тайминг, не за качеството на бизнеса." }, "7": { "summary": "Смесена картина с превес на положителните сигнали: 3 благоприятни, 1 неутрални, 2 тревожни от 6 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 3, "y": 1, "r": 2 }, "tone": "y", "name": "Пазарна структура", "meaning": "Показва кой държи и търгува акцията – ликвидност, къси позиции, институции и вътрешни лица." }, "8": { "summary": "Предимно благоприятна картина: 4 благоприятни, 2 неутрални, 0 тревожни от 6 оценени фактора.", "counts": { "g": 4, "y": 2, "r": 0 }, "tone": "g", "name": "Прогнози и макро", "meaning": "Показва какво очаква пазарът за бъдещето – прогнози на анализатори, цена на капитала и чувствителност." } }, "insights": [ { "kind": "good", "text": "Печалба с високо качество: кешът надвишава печалбата (1.37×) и FCF маржът е 17%." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Цената е в силен възходящ тренд (+19% над SMA200), но е с 88% над справедливата според модела – импулсът може да е по-силен от оценката; риск при корекция." }, { "kind": "good", "text": "Оперативен ливъридж: маржът се разширява (~167 б.п./год.) заедно с ръст на оперативната печалба." }, { "kind": "warn", "text": "Печалбата дава по-малко от безрисковата доходност (5.0%) – инвестицията разчита на бъдещ растеж." } ], "strengths": [ { "id": 17, "name": "Operating Margin", "text": "Отличен оперативен марж", "value": 47.10444659325434 }, { "id": 18, "name": "Net Profit Margin", "text": "Отличен нетен марж", "value": 41.16988266535814 }, { "id": 19, "name": "EBITDA Margin", "text": "Много висока кеш-генерираща способност", "value": 64.35076274733363 }, { "id": 21, "name": "ROIC", "text": "Изключителна възвръщаемост – типичен знак за ров", "value": 30.192208518669684 }, { "id": 22, "name": "ROE", "text": "Много висок ROE – проверете дали не е раздут от дълг или обратни изкупувания", "value": 32.241227703345714 }, { "id": 23, "name": "ROA", "text": "Отличен ROA", "value": 18.80742534046436 } ], "risks": [ { "id": 10, "name": "EV/FCF", "text": "Скъпа спрямо свободния кеш", "value": 64.1774202658572 }, { "id": 11, "name": "P/FCF", "text": "Скъпа спрямо свободния кеш", "value": 64.50807390096236 }, { "id": 6, "name": "Price to Sales", "text": "Много висока – всичко зависи от бъдещите маржове", "value": 11.163995978813375 }, { "id": 13, "name": "Earnings Yield − 10Y", "text": "Печалбата дава по-малко от безрисковата облигация – оценката разчита на растеж", "value": -1.2791861091547574 }, { "id": 4, "name": "Price to Book", "text": "Много висока премия над собствения капитал", "value": 8.22118 }, { "id": 14, "name": "FCF Yield", "text": "Много нисък кеш доход спрямо цената", "value": 1.5501935486948117 } ], "counts": { "g": 44, "y": 28, "r": 14 } }, "modules": { "quarterly": { "available": true, "quarters": [ { "date": "2026-09-30", "revenue": 92279000000.0, "gross": 62559000000.0, "operating": 45915000000.0, "net": 36629000000.0, "ebitda": 58567000000.0, "eps": 4.92, "fcf": 18633000000.0, "cfo": 58000000000.0, "gross_m": 67.79332242438691, "op_m": 49.75671604590427, "net_m": 39.693754808786395, "fcf_m": 20.192026354858637, "rev_yoy": 18.804475171552525, "rev_qoq": 2.5242481140355766, "eps_yoy": 32.258064516129025 }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "revenue": 90007000000.0, "gross": 60482000000.0, "operating": 40603000000.0, "net": 35766000000.0, "ebitda": 55908000000.0, "eps": 4.81, "fcf": 19639000000.0, "cfo": 55441000000.0, "gross_m": 67.1969957892164, "op_m": 45.11093581610319, "net_m": 39.73690935149488, "fcf_m": 21.819414045574234, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": 8.591318196076546, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2026-03-31", "revenue": 82886000000.0, "gross": 56058000000.0, "operating": 38398000000.0, "net": 31778000000.0, "ebitda": 50285000000.0, "eps": 4.27, "fcf": 15803000000.0, "cfo": 46679000000.0, "gross_m": 67.63265207634582, "op_m": 46.32627946818522, "net_m": 38.33940593103781, "fcf_m": 19.065945998117897, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": 1.98466895524958, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "revenue": 81273000000.0, "gross": 55295000000.0, "operating": 38275000000.0, "net": 38458000000.0, "ebitda": 58180000000.0, "eps": 5.16, "fcf": 5882000000.0, "cfo": 35758000000.0, "gross_m": 68.0361251584167, "op_m": 47.094360980891565, "net_m": 47.3195280105324, "fcf_m": 7.237335892608862, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": 4.634815186744423, "eps_yoy": null }, { "date": "2025-09-30", "revenue": 77673000000.0, "gross": 53630000000.0, "operating": 37961000000.0, "net": 27747000000.0, "ebitda": 43146000000.0, "eps": 3.72, "fcf": 25663000000.0, "cfo": 45057000000.0, "gross_m": 69.04587179586214, "op_m": 48.872838695557014, "net_m": 35.72283805183268, "fcf_m": 33.039795038172855, "rev_yoy": null, "rev_qoq": null, "eps_yoy": null } ], "earnings": [ { "date": "2026-10-28", "estimate": 4.72, "reported": 4.89, "surprise": 3.59, "move": -0.16383779988845548 }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "estimate": 4.24, "reported": 4.74, "surprise": 11.81, "move": 15.506733300956487 }, { "date": "2026-04-29", "estimate": 4.07, "reported": 4.27, "surprise": 4.85, "move": -3.9296972651300055 }, { "date": "2026-01-28", "estimate": 3.92, "reported": 4.14, "surprise": 5.69, "move": -9.993149179840488 }, { "date": "2025-10-29", "estimate": 3.66, "reported": 4.13, "surprise": 12.73, "move": -2.915700929418197 }, { "date": "2025-07-30", "estimate": 3.38, "reported": 3.65, "surprise": 8.09, "move": 3.947472946598163 }, { "date": "2025-04-30", "estimate": 3.22, "reported": 3.46, "surprise": 7.4, "move": 7.6253563189282225 }, { "date": "2025-01-29", "estimate": 3.12, "reported": 3.23, "surprise": 3.47, "move": -6.18090501839037 }, { "date": "2024-10-30", "estimate": 3.11, "reported": 3.3, "surprise": 6.13, "move": null }, { "date": "2024-07-30", "estimate": 2.94, "reported": 2.95, "surprise": 0.23, "move": null }, { "date": "2024-04-25", "estimate": 2.84, "reported": 2.94, "surprise": 3.4, "move": null }, { "date": "2024-01-30", "estimate": 2.77, "reported": 2.93, "surprise": 5.83, "move": null } ], "beat": { "n": 24, "beat_rate": 95.83333333333334, "avg_surprise": 6.857083333333333, "streak": 17 }, "reaction": { "avg_abs_move": 6.282856594893798, "n": 8 }, "trends": { "revenue": 1, "op_margin": 0, "eps": 1, "fcf": 0 }, "score": 82.36057091910959, "label": "Силен и подобряващ се тримесечен импулс", "notes": [ "Приходите през последното тримесечие (2026-09-30) са +18.8% спрямо същото тримесечие миналата година и +2.5% спрямо предходното.", "Оперативният марж е 49.8% (+4.6 п.п. спрямо предходното тримесечие).", "Свободният кеш през тримесечието е 20% от приходите; FCF/нетна печалба = 0.51.", "Печалбата е надминавала консенсуса в 96% от последните 24 отчета (серия: 17); средна изненада +6.9%.", "След отчет цената се е движела средно ±6.3% в следващия ден (последни ~3 г.)." ], "n_quarters": 5, "coverage_note": "Безплатният източник дава 5–7 тримесечия отчети (YoY е възможно само за най-новите 1–3), но до 24 тримесечия история на EPS изненадите." }, "orderflow": { "gex": { "available": true, "expirations": [ "2026-11-04", "2026-11-06", "2026-11-09", "2026-11-11", "2026-11-13", "2026-11-20" ], "put_wall": 500.0, "call_wall": 550.0, "gamma_flip": 420.0, "total_gex": 413307257.45743984, "regime": "Положителна гама – пазарът се стабилизира (маркет мейкърите продават на ръст/купуват на спад)", "put_call_oi": 0.5590419442246574, "put_call_vol": 0.39979778590216064, "atm_iv": 32.23472476263115, "strikes": [ { "strike": 500.0, "net": -25319353.15187161, "call_oi": 9606.0, "put_oi": 19480.0 }, { "strike": 525.0, "net": 44402967.57711089, "call_oi": 11128.0, "put_oi": 5627.0 }, { "strike": 530.0, "net": 66784263.08751628, "call_oi": 18177.0, "put_oi": 4619.0 }, { "strike": 532.5, "net": 17812384.415103342, "call_oi": 4485.0, "put_oi": 1078.0 }, { "strike": 535.0, "net": 55330299.11648151, "call_oi": 23016.0, "put_oi": 5552.0 }, { "strike": 540.0, "net": 81986620.90829237, "call_oi": 30170.0, "put_oi": 3247.0 }, { "strike": 545.0, "net": 27503477.40068187, "call_oi": 12836.0, "put_oi": 969.0 }, { "strike": 550.0, "net": 64785885.53632562, "call_oi": 31315.0, "put_oi": 1338.0 }, { "strike": 555.0, "net": 17633382.600031544, "call_oi": 9679.0, "put_oi": 259.0 }, { "strike": 560.0, "net": 29289858.275867026, "call_oi": 21199.0, "put_oi": 332.0 }, { "strike": 570.0, "net": 18476783.177641872, "call_oi": 20927.0, "put_oi": 276.0 }, { "strike": 580.0, "net": 20440588.34803203, "call_oi": 29872.0, "put_oi": 105.0 } ] }, "ats": { "available": true, "weeks": [ { "week": "2026-07-20", "ats_shares": 28160797, "total_volume": 138196100.0, "share": 20.377418031333736 }, { "week": "2026-07-27", "ats_shares": 58781036, "total_volume": 278439400.0, "share": 21.11089019729248 }, { "week": "2026-08-03", "ats_shares": 45810919, "total_volume": 215894200.0, "share": 21.219152251426856 }, { "week": "2026-08-10", "ats_shares": 23321513, "total_volume": 122514000.0, "share": 19.035794276572474 }, { "week": "2026-08-17", "ats_shares": 19699780, "total_volume": 116216900.0, "share": 16.9508737541614 }, { "week": "2026-08-24", "ats_shares": 19262497, "total_volume": 115404800.0, "share": 16.691244211679237 }, { "week": "2026-08-31", "ats_shares": 19054347, "total_volume": 105819600.0, "share": 18.006443985802253 }, { "week": "2026-09-07", "ats_shares": 10859002, "total_volume": 62321200.0, "share": 17.424250495818438 }, { "week": "2026-09-28", "ats_shares": 18029661, "total_volume": 105746200.0, "share": 17.04993749184368 }, { "week": "2026-10-12", "ats_shares": 23199580, "total_volume": 113488100.0, "share": 20.442301880109014 } ], "last_week": "2026-10-12", "last_share": 20.442301880109014, "avg_share": 18.830830657603958, "lag_days": 22, "top_firms": [ { "name": "UBSA UBS ATS", "shares": 3290895, "notional": 1770729502.525 }, { "name": "SGMT SIGMA X2", "shares": 2706781, "notional": 1455310816.1983 }, { "name": "INCR INTELLIGENT CROSS LLC", "shares": 2584547, "notional": 1391723970.356689 }, { "name": "EBXL LEVEL ATS", "shares": 2012138, "notional": 1081854078.3209 }, { "name": "CGXS ONECHRONOS", "shares": 1516500, "notional": 815411273.38 } ], "note": "FINRA публикува ATS обемите със седмично/месечно закъснение – това е структурен индикатор, не сигнал в реално време. Отделните блокови сделки >$5M (prints) не са свободно достъпни." }, "footprint": { "cmf20": 0.020034084505344666, "ad_slope": 0.02003408450534466, "accumulation_days": 1, "distribution_days": 1, "updown_vol": 0.6708139947911138 }, "signal": { "score": 0, "max": 5, "label": "Няма следа от натрупване", "reasons": [], "tranche2": false } }, "smartmoney": { "insiders": { "available": true, "cik": 789019, "days": 180, "filings_checked": 30, "buys": [], "sells": [ { "filed": "2026-09-15", "date": "2026-09-14", "insider": "Hood Amy", "role": "EVP, Chief Financial Officer", "officer": true, "director": false, "code": "S", "shares": 10433.0, "price": 496.9118, "value": 5184280.809400001, "after": 560526.427, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 1.827275197962534, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000078901926000212/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-15", "date": "2026-09-14", "insider": "Hood Amy", "role": "EVP, Chief Financial Officer", "officer": true, "director": false, "code": "S", "shares": 9821.0, "price": 497.7849, "value": 4888745.5029, "after": 550705.427, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 1.7521029387611728, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000078901926000212/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-15", "date": "2026-09-14", "insider": "Hood Amy", "role": "EVP, Chief Financial Officer", "officer": true, "director": false, "code": "S", "shares": 8834.0, "price": 500.1135, "value": 4418002.659, "after": 537566.427, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 1.6167630117902523, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000078901926000212/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-15", "date": "2026-09-14", "insider": "Hood Amy", "role": "EVP, Chief Financial Officer", "officer": true, "director": false, "code": "S", "shares": 4339.0, "price": 495.974, "value": 2152031.1859999998, "after": 570959.427, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 0.7542172542738413, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000078901926000212/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-15", "date": "2026-09-14", "insider": "Hood Amy", "role": "EVP, Chief Financial Officer", "officer": true, "director": false, "code": "S", "shares": 4305.0, "price": 498.8845, "value": 2147697.7725, "after": 546400.427, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 0.7817246369718452, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000078901926000212/" }, { "filed": "2026-09-15", "date": "2026-09-14", "insider": "Hood Amy", "role": "EVP, Chief Financial Officer", "officer": true, "director": false, "code": "S", "shares": 3942.0, "price": 500.783, "value": 1974086.5860000001, "after": 533624.427, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 0.7333047232877138, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000078901926000212/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-14", "date": "2026-10-13", "insider": "Hood Amy", "role": "EVP, Chief Financial Officer", "officer": true, "director": false, "code": "S", "shares": 3387.0, "price": 544.8001, "value": 1845237.9387, "after": 559314.427, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 0.6019177911201565, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000078901926000226/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-14", "date": "2026-10-13", "insider": "Hood Amy", "role": "EVP, Chief Financial Officer", "officer": true, "director": false, "code": "S", "shares": 2927.0, "price": 545.7722, "value": 1597475.2294, "after": 556387.427, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 0.5233192384647714, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000078901926000226/" }, { "filed": "2026-10-14", "date": "2026-10-13", "insider": "Hood Amy", "role": "EVP, Chief Financial Officer", "officer": true, "director": false, "code": "S", "shares": 991.0, "price": 546.5084, "value": 541589.8244, "after": 555396.427, "planned": true, "pct_sold": 0.17811329873922546, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000078901926000226/" } ], "buy_count": 0, "sell_count": 9, "buy_value": 0, "sell_value": 24749147.5083, "net_value": -24749147.5083, "unique_buyers": 0, "cluster_buying": false, "officer_buying": false, "big_sells": [], "planned_sells": 9, "note": "Парснати са Form 4 от SEC EDGAR; броят се само сделки с код P (покупка) и S (продажба на отворения пазар). Продажбите често са планови (10b5-1) или за данъци – помнете, че покупките са по-силен сигнал от продажбите." }, "darkpool": { "available": false, "reason": "Няма Polygon ключ. Добавете polygon_key в config.json (платен план Stocks Developer) за блокови сделки >$1M. Безплатният FINRA ATS дял е в модула „Институционален поток“." }, "score": { "value": 0, "accumulating": false, "signals": [ "Нетни продажби за $24,749,148 без покупки (често планови)." ], "sources": { "sec": true, "polygon": false, "finra_ats": true } } }, "catalysts": { "trackers": [ { "key": "operating_leverage", "name": "Operating Leverage Turning Point", "horizon": "1–2 тримесечия", "mechanism": "Приходите растат по-бързо от разходите; скок на оперативния марж над 200 б.п.", "status": "watch", "margin_now": 49.75671604590427, "margin_prev_year": 48.872838695557014, "delta_bps": 88.38773503472564, "revenue_growth": 18.804475171552525, "cost_growth": 16.750604351329578, "detail": "Оперативен марж 49.8% срещу 48.9% преди година (+88 б.п.); приходи +18.8% срещу разходи +16.8%." }, { "key": "capital_allocation", "name": "Capital Allocation Shift", "horizon": "3–6 месеца", "mechanism": "Прекратяване на разводняващи M&A и насочване на FCF към обратни изкупувания при P/E < 15.", "status": "watch", "pe": 27.182673, "buyback_to_fcf": 37.144953883616594, "mna_to_fcf": 2.907083409777007, "share_change": -0.07699527634038583, "buyback_yield": 0.5758186787694873, "detail": "Обратни изкупувания = 37% от FCF, M&A = 3% от FCF, P/E 27.2, брой акции -0.1% YoY." }, { "key": "spinoff", "name": "Corporate Spin-Off / Asset Carve-Out", "horizon": "6–12 месеца", "mechanism": "Отделяне на звено; пазарът премахва „конгломератната отстъпка“.", "status": "unknown", "detail": "Новините не са достъпни в момента.", "headlines": [] }, { "key": "squeeze", "name": "Short Squeeze / Fundamental De-risking", "horizon": "1–3 месеца", "mechanism": "Short float > 15%, Days to Cover > 5 + положителен отчет, който опровергава мечата теза.", "status": "none", "short_float": 0.88, "days_to_cover": 2.94, "last_surprise": 3.59, "detail": "Short float 0.9%, Days to Cover 2.9, последна изненада в печалбата +3.6%." } ], "active": [], "events": [ { "type": "Ex-dividend дата", "date": "2026-11-19", "extra": "", "days": 16 }, { "type": "Месечен опционен падеж (OPEX)", "date": "2026-11-20", "extra": "Повишена волатилност около гама нивата", "days": 17 }, { "type": "Изплащане на дивидент", "date": "2026-12-10", "extra": "", "days": 37 }, { "type": "Отчет (Earnings)", "date": "2027-01-27", "extra": "EPS консенсус 4.80272, приходи 96699555770", "days": 85 } ], "summary": "Няма напълно потвърден твърд катализатор – само индикации." }, "profitlock": { "rules": { "tp1_pct": 20.0, "sell_fraction": 35.0, "breakeven_plus": 1.0, "atr_mult": 2.5 }, "levels": { "wap": 480.02241981061627, "tp1": 576.0269037727395, "breakeven_stop": 484.8226440087224, "hh22": 551.1500244140625, "atr14": 12.883875501295964, "chandelier_now": 518.9403356608226, "initial_stop": 384.01793584849304, "tp2": 672.0313877348627 }, "baseline": { "expected": 0.8100030972388451, "median": 6.579609424455546, "p_loss": 36.925000000000004, "p_ge20": 7.175, "p_tp1": 64.45, "p_tp2": 43.725, "p_stop_before_tp1": 26.775, "p_be_exit": 3.45, "cvar5": -23.318890163838535, "worst5": -22.541365733032837, "best95": 25.709121547667934 }, "locked": { "expected": 0.6005506545334017, "median": 5.164560154093035, "p_loss": 32.15, "p_ge20": 3.85, "p_tp1": 64.45, "p_tp2": 20.549999999999997, "p_stop_before_tp1": 26.775, "p_be_exit": 43.175000000000004, "cvar5": -23.318890163838535, "worst5": -22.541365733032837, "best95": 19.263377505022557 }, "hypothetical_target": false, "better": false, "note": "Chandelier Exit = най-висок максимум за 22 дни − 2.5×ATR(14). След TP1 (продава се 35%) стопът на останалите 65% се вдига на WAP+1% (Free Ride) и следва Chandelier. В симулацията ATR е приближен с текущия ATR% от цената." }, "scanner": { "passed": false, "reasons": [ "MoS -88% < 20%", "Piotroski 6.0 < 7" ], "result": null }, "macro": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "points": 0, "max_points": 5, "items": [ { "key": "curve", "name": "Крива на доходността 10Y−2Y", "value": 0.32, "unit": "п.п.", "points": 0, "text": "Плоска крива – неутрално" }, { "key": "liquidity", "name": "Нетна ликвидност на Fed (баланс − TGA − RRP)", "value": 5745.732, "unit": "млрд $", "change13w": -79.10599999999977, "points": -1, "text": "Ликвидността пада (-79 млрд за 13 седмици)", "series": { "dates": [ "2025-11-05", "2025-11-12", "2025-11-19", "2025-11-26", "2025-12-03", "2025-12-10", "2025-12-17", "2025-12-24", "2025-12-31", "2026-01-07", "2026-01-14", "2026-01-21", "2026-01-28", "2026-02-04", "2026-02-11", "2026-02-18", "2026-02-25", "2026-03-04", "2026-03-11", "2026-03-18", "2026-03-25", "2026-04-01", "2026-04-08", "2026-04-15", "2026-04-22", "2026-04-29", "2026-05-06", "2026-05-13", "2026-05-20", "2026-05-27", "2026-06-03", "2026-06-10", "2026-06-17", "2026-06-24", "2026-07-01", "2026-07-08", "2026-07-15", "2026-07-22", "2026-07-29", "2026-08-05", "2026-08-12", "2026-08-19", "2026-08-26", "2026-09-02", "2026-09-09", "2026-09-16", "2026-09-23", "2026-09-30", "2026-10-07", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-21", "2026-10-28" ], "values": [ 5618.9, 5620.8, 5612.2, 5646.8, 5596.1, 5675.3, 5713.4, 5739.3, 5697.3, 5772.9, 5799.3, 5712.0, 5663.4, 5694.7, 5706.0, 5699.8, 5725.0, 5796.0, 5807.6, 5802.2, 5782.3, 5825.5, 5945.3, 5954.1, 5700.9, 5717.3, 5830.1, 5886.2, 5907.5, 5872.2, 5833.7, 5896.9, 5848.9, 5812.4, 5843.3, 5958.2, 5986.7, 5917.4, 5824.8, 5839.6, 5795.3, 5791.8, 5779.5, 5768.7, 5856.9, 5864.1, 5770.2, 5782.8, 5865.0, 5872.1, 5801.4, 5745.7 ] } }, { "key": "vix", "name": "VIX (индекс на страха)", "value": 20.450000762939453, "unit": "", "points": 0, "text": "Повишена тревожност" }, { "key": "term", "name": "VIX term structure (VIX/VIX3M)", "value": 0.9691943314322823, "unit": "", "points": 0, "text": "Плоска структура" }, { "key": "trend", "name": "S&P 500 спрямо SMA200", "value": 3.7227583038395906, "unit": "%", "points": 1, "text": "Над 200-дневната средна – възходящ режим" } ], "required_mos": 25, "advice": "Смесени сигнали – стандартен размер на позициите и MoS ≥ 25%.", "risk_free": { "t_bill_3m": 4.029999732971191, "t_note_10y": 4.958000183105469 }, "stock": { "mos": -88.01463615687203, "required_mos": 25, "passes": false, "beta": 1.045, "beta_fits": true }, "note": "Режимът е правило върху 5 публични индикатора (FRED, Yahoo) – ориентир, не прогноза за пазара. Нетната ликвидност е приближена: WALCL − TGA − RRP." }, "benchmark": { "indices": { "SPY": { "name": "S&P 500 (SPY)", "corr": 0.5562690396605584, "r2": 0.3094352444848799, "idio_share": 69.05647555151201, "vol_stock": 29.62174291285763, "vol_index": 14.72095770475596, "exp_stock": 7.297045462743212, "exp_index": 10.410801910527766, "p_beat_index": 39.885, "p_beat_rf": 46.78, "exp_excess": -3.11375644778456, "p_excess_10": 27.084999999999997, "p_lag_10": 44.65, "sharpe_stock": 0.0805328190965917, "sharpe_index": 0.33965181479902157 }, "VWCE.DE": { "name": "FTSE All-World (VWCE)", "corr": 0.38575222752908706, "r2": 0.14880478104365255, "idio_share": 85.11952189563475, "vol_stock": 29.62174291285763, "vol_index": 13.145620702950572, "exp_stock": 7.3027909095700005, "exp_index": 9.900746879044075, "p_beat_index": 41.11, "p_beat_rf": 46.805, "exp_excess": -2.5979559694740804, "p_excess_10": 29.255, "p_lag_10": 44.775, "sharpe_stock": 0.0805328190965917, "sharpe_index": 0.34231932456334774 } }, "hurdle": { "rf_pct": 4.958000183105469, "spread_vs_rf_lo": 15.041999816894531, "spread_vs_rf_hi": 35.04199981689453, "market_expected": 9.95800018310547, "plan_expected_net": 0.6132172797817534, "plan_p_ge20": 7.199999999999999, "alpha_needed": 10.04199981689453, "plan_edge": -9.344782903323717 }, "verdict": [ "69% от риска на акцията е специфичен за компанията (не се обяснява от пазара) – това е рискът, за който трябва да бъдете възнаградени.", "Шанс акцията да победи S&P 500 за 12 месеца: 40% (очаквано превъзходство -3.1 п.п.); шанс да изостане с повече от 10 п.п.: 45%.", "Планът за 1–2 сделки има очаквана нетна печалба +0.6% срещу пазарна алтернатива ≈ 10.0% и безрискова доходност 5.0% – липсва преимущество от -9.3 п.п." ], "worth": false, "note": "Симулацията е двумерен GBM с историческа корелация и вол. за последните 2 г.; очакваната доходност на акцията е от модела за прогноза, на индекса – CAPM (rf + премия за риск)." }, "tranchetest": { "available": true, "summary": { "n": 999, "years": 40.63492063492063, "mean": 6.365836435866547, "median": 8.086833314962764, "win": 82.98298298298297, "p_stop": 11.511511511511511, "p_tp2": 43.44344344344344, "p_ge20": 6.606606606606606, "worst": -27.55696009974209, "best": 35.61182637108089, "p_t2": 55.45545545545546, "p_t3": 25.925925925925924 }, "crises": [ { "label": "COVID срив (фев–мар 2020)", "n": 3, "mean": 24.323525545632975, "worst": 18.614886847338237, "p_stop": 0.0 }, { "label": "Инфлационен спад (2022)", "n": 12, "mean": -2.5758518928815195, "worst": -21.976276101216442, "p_stop": 41.66666666666667 }, { "label": "Финансова криза (2008)", "n": 22, "mean": -21.899481082822696, "worst": -24.113876935138546, "p_stop": 100.0 }, { "label": "Dot-com (2000–2001)", "n": 28, "mean": -10.580738135906904, "worst": -25.791205523838244, "p_stop": 71.42857142857143 } ], "scenarios": [ { "name": "Базов сценарий", "mu": 7.34352264643238, "vol": 33.38680351960046, "expected": 0.5458644945475155, "p_stop": 31.44, "p_tp2": 43.99, "p_tp1": 63.55, "p_loss": 37.5, "cvar5": -23.2528257361766, "worst5": -22.53618253171399, "stop_before_tp": 33.09822086535425 }, { "name": "Висока волатилност (×1.5)", "mu": 7.34352264643238, "vol": 50.080205279400694, "expected": -0.9643366234151707, "p_stop": 46.739999999999995, "p_tp2": 49.55, "p_tp1": 62.980000000000004, "p_loss": 46.35, "cvar5": -24.84522425349838, "worst5": -23.78834530928843, "stop_before_tp": 42.599343784177904 }, { "name": "Мечи тренд (−15% годишно)", "mu": -15.0, "vol": 33.38680351960046, "expected": -7.257194236288732, "p_stop": 53.72, "p_tp2": 24.01, "p_tp1": 42.92, "p_loss": 60.99, "cvar5": -23.614096222621683, "worst5": -22.940806559583134, "stop_before_tp": 55.58774834437086 }, { "name": "Кризисен (вол. ×2, −25% годишно)", "mu": -25.0, "vol": 66.77360703920093, "expected": -5.778793598133311, "p_stop": 61.199999999999996, "p_tp2": 38.550000000000004, "p_tp1": 52.239999999999995, "p_loss": 60.01, "cvar5": -26.36431054291912, "worst5": -25.047780777591797, "stop_before_tp": 53.94922425952045 } ], "timeline": [ { "d": "1986-03-13", "r": 20.06 }, { "d": "1986-05-09", "r": 20.24 }, { "d": "1986-07-08", "r": 19.43 }, { "d": "1986-09-03", "r": 8.59 }, { "d": "1986-10-29", "r": 8.05 }, { "d": "1986-12-26", "r": 10.05 }, { "d": "1987-02-24", "r": 7.92 }, { "d": "1987-04-22", "r": 22.57 }, { "d": "1987-06-18", "r": 19.97 }, { "d": "1987-08-14", "r": 8.32 }, { "d": "1987-10-12", "r": -24.39 }, { "d": "1987-12-08", "r": 8.38 }, { "d": "1988-02-04", "r": 15.11 }, { "d": "1988-04-04", "r": 2.16 }, { "d": "1988-05-31", "r": 10.99 }, { "d": "1988-07-27", "r": 7.92 }, { "d": "1988-09-22", "r": 14.14 }, { "d": "1988-11-17", "r": 8.05 }, { "d": "1989-01-17", "r": 23.0 }, { "d": "1989-03-15", "r": 18.72 }, { "d": "1989-05-11", "r": 8.77 }, { "d": "1989-07-10", "r": 8.45 }, { "d": "1989-09-05", "r": 8.66 }, { "d": "1989-10-31", "r": 18.97 }, { "d": "1989-12-28", "r": 8.31 }, { "d": "1990-02-26", "r": 8.29 }, { "d": "1990-04-24", "r": 22.92 }, { "d": "1990-06-20", "r": -23.28 }, { "d": "1990-08-16", "r": 28.54 }, { "d": "1990-10-12", "r": 8.51 }, { "d": "1990-12-10", "r": 8.34 }, { "d": "1991-02-06", "r": 19.24 }, { "d": "1991-04-05", "r": 19.11 }, { "d": "1991-06-03", "r": 27.09 }, { "d": "1991-07-30", "r": 7.98 }, { "d": "1991-09-25", "r": 8.25 }, { "d": "1991-11-20", "r": 8.29 }, { "d": "1992-01-20", "r": 17.42 }, { "d": "1992-03-17", "r": 13.73 }, { "d": "1992-05-13", "r": 12.35 }, { "d": "1992-07-10", "r": 5.47 }, { "d": "1992-09-04", "r": 2.54 }, { "d": "1992-11-02", "r": -2.88 }, { "d": "1992-12-30", "r": 1.93 }, { "d": "1993-02-26", "r": -0.75 }, { "d": "1993-04-26", "r": 11.26 }, { "d": "1993-06-22", "r": 22.07 }, { "d": "1993-08-18", "r": 19.0 }, { "d": "1993-10-14", "r": 18.37 }, { "d": "1993-12-10", "r": 8.19 }, { "d": "1994-02-07", "r": 7.96 }, { "d": "1994-04-06", "r": 19.96 }, { "d": "1994-06-03", "r": 18.67 }, { "d": "1994-08-01", "r": 8.6 }, { "d": "1994-09-27", "r": 8.2 }, { "d": "1994-11-22", "r": 8.56 }, { "d": "1995-01-20", "r": 8.78 }, { "d": "1995-03-20", "r": 8.0 }, { "d": "1995-05-16", "r": 8.13 }, { "d": "1995-07-13", "r": 19.93 }, { "d": "1995-09-08", "r": 27.6 }, { "d": "1995-11-03", "r": 27.5 }, { "d": "1996-01-03", "r": 19.79 }, { "d": "1996-02-29", "r": 7.94 }, { "d": "1996-04-26", "r": 8.4 }, { "d": "1996-06-24", "r": 19.35 }, { "d": "1996-08-20", "r": 8.16 }, { "d": "1996-10-16", "r": 8.08 }, { "d": "1996-12-12", "r": 8.13 }, { "d": "1997-02-10", "r": 19.96 }, { "d": "1997-04-09", "r": 8.18 }, { "d": "1997-06-05", "r": 8.36 }, { "d": "1997-08-01", "r": 18.54 }, { "d": "1997-09-29", "r": 18.86 }, { "d": "1997-11-24", "r": 18.48 }, { "d": "1998-01-23", "r": 8.61 }, { "d": "1998-03-23", "r": 7.86 }, { "d": "1998-05-19", "r": 8.09 }, { "d": "1998-07-16", "r": 29.33 }, { "d": "1998-09-11", "r": 18.79 }, { "d": "1998-11-06", "r": 8.43 }, { "d": "1999-01-06", "r": 8.56 }, { "d": "1999-03-05", "r": 8.73 }, { "d": "1999-05-03", "r": 8.73 }, { "d": "1999-06-29", "r": 21.11 }, { "d": "1999-08-25", "r": -7.07 }, { "d": "1999-10-21", "r": -6.86 }, { "d": "1999-12-17", "r": -21.9 }, { "d": "2000-02-15", "r": -27.46 }, { "d": "2000-04-12", "r": -23.53 }, { "d": "2000-06-09", "r": -21.44 }, { "d": "2000-08-07", "r": -22.78 }, { "d": "2000-10-03", "r": -4.45 }, { "d": "2000-11-29", "r": -21.14 }, { "d": "2001-01-29", "r": 9.5 }, { "d": "2001-03-27", "r": 6.45 }, { "d": "2001-05-23", "r": -21.85 }, { "d": "2001-07-20", "r": -21.26 }, { "d": "2001-09-21", "r": 8.03 }, { "d": "2001-11-16", "r": -22.46 }, { "d": "2002-01-16", "r": -21.64 }, { "d": "2002-03-15", "r": -26.14 }, { "d": "2002-05-13", "r": 5.87 }, { "d": "2002-07-10", "r": 13.69 }, { "d": "2002-09-05", "r": 5.98 }, { "d": "2002-10-31", "r": 1.17 }, { "d": "2002-12-30", "r": 5.48 }, { "d": "2003-02-27", "r": 4.23 }, { "d": "2003-04-25", "r": 2.09 }, { "d": "2003-06-23", "r": 2.57 }, { "d": "2003-08-19", "r": 3.65 }, { "d": "2003-10-15", "r": 3.55 }, { "d": "2003-12-11", "r": 11.47 }, { "d": "2004-02-10", "r": 7.16 }, { "d": "2004-04-07", "r": 2.27 }, { "d": "2004-06-04", "r": 2.45 }, { "d": "2004-08-03", "r": 1.78 }, { "d": "2004-09-29", "r": 1.04 }, { "d": "2004-11-24", "r": 6.01 }, { "d": "2005-01-24", "r": 0.76 }, { "d": "2005-03-22", "r": 3.69 }, { "d": "2005-05-18", "r": -4.94 }, { "d": "2005-07-15", "r": -6.16 }, { "d": "2005-09-12", "r": 5.71 }, { "d": "2005-11-07", "r": 15.28 }, { "d": "2006-01-05", "r": 18.14 }, { "d": "2006-03-06", "r": 14.05 }, { "d": "2006-05-02", "r": 17.71 }, { "d": "2006-06-28", "r": 6.49 }, { "d": "2006-08-24", "r": 4.32 }, { "d": "2006-10-20", "r": 2.51 }, { "d": "2006-12-18", "r": 13.89 }, { "d": "2007-02-16", "r": 9.24 }, { "d": "2007-04-17", "r": 3.0 }, { "d": "2007-06-13", "r": 5.29 }, { "d": "2007-08-09", "r": 3.63 }, { "d": "2007-10-05", "r": -3.06 }, { "d": "2007-12-03", "r": -23.4 }, { "d": "2008-01-31", "r": -22.65 }, { "d": "2008-03-31", "r": -22.65 }, { "d": "2008-05-27", "r": -20.9 }, { "d": "2008-07-23", "r": -21.25 }, { "d": "2008-09-18", "r": -21.77 }, { "d": "2008-11-13", "r": -21.83 }, { "d": "2009-01-13", "r": 27.1 }, { "d": "2009-03-12", "r": 8.22 }, { "d": "2009-05-08", "r": 8.75 }, { "d": "2009-07-07", "r": 8.6 }, { "d": "2009-09-01", "r": 2.77 }, { "d": "2009-10-28", "r": 2.59 }, { "d": "2009-12-24", "r": -0.51 }, { "d": "2010-02-24", "r": 1.95 }, { "d": "2010-04-22", "r": -20.98 }, { "d": "2010-06-18", "r": -2.07 }, { "d": "2010-08-16", "r": 1.56 }, { "d": "2010-10-12", "r": 2.86 }, { "d": "2010-12-08", "r": -0.24 }, { "d": "2011-02-04", "r": 9.63 }, { "d": "2011-04-04", "r": 6.37 }, { "d": "2011-06-01", "r": 5.95 }, { "d": "2011-07-28", "r": 10.53 }, { "d": "2011-09-23", "r": 6.0 }, { "d": "2011-11-18", "r": 3.9 }, { "d": "2012-01-19", "r": -0.45 }, { "d": "2012-03-16", "r": -3.69 }, { "d": "2012-05-14", "r": 11.96 }, { "d": "2012-07-11", "r": 15.98 }, { "d": "2012-09-06", "r": 9.45 }, { "d": "2012-11-05", "r": 16.13 }, { "d": "2013-01-03", "r": 8.35 }, { "d": "2013-03-04", "r": 8.15 }, { "d": "2013-04-30", "r": 5.93 }, { "d": "2013-06-26", "r": 15.96 }, { "d": "2013-08-22", "r": 8.04 }, { "d": "2013-10-18", "r": 6.48 }, { "d": "2013-12-16", "r": 6.08 }, { "d": "2014-02-13", "r": 5.14 }, { "d": "2014-04-11", "r": 3.69 }, { "d": "2014-06-10", "r": 4.85 }, { "d": "2014-08-06", "r": 2.99 }, { "d": "2014-10-02", "r": 3.52 }, { "d": "2014-11-28", "r": 12.64 }, { "d": "2015-01-28", "r": 7.98 }, { "d": "2015-03-26", "r": 8.28 }, { "d": "2015-05-22", "r": 10.54 }, { "d": "2015-07-21", "r": 14.1 }, { "d": "2015-09-16", "r": 7.16 }, { "d": "2015-11-11", "r": 11.56 }, { "d": "2016-01-11", "r": 5.55 }, { "d": "2016-03-09", "r": 15.94 }, { "d": "2016-05-05", "r": 8.0 }, { "d": "2016-07-01", "r": 7.85 }, { "d": "2016-08-29", "r": 6.45 }, { "d": "2016-10-25", "r": 6.85 }, { "d": "2016-12-21", "r": 7.55 }, { "d": "2017-02-21", "r": 8.1 }, { "d": "2017-04-19", "r": 7.99 }, { "d": "2017-06-15", "r": 7.92 }, { "d": "2017-08-11", "r": 8.19 }, { "d": "2017-10-09", "r": 7.93 }, { "d": "2017-12-05", "r": 7.92 }, { "d": "2018-02-02", "r": 13.36 }, { "d": "2018-04-03", "r": 7.4 }, { "d": "2018-05-30", "r": 6.12 }, { "d": "2018-07-26", "r": 17.21 }, { "d": "2018-09-21", "r": 22.78 }, { "d": "2018-11-16", "r": 18.64 }, { "d": "2019-01-17", "r": 8.14 }, { "d": "2019-03-18", "r": 7.88 }, { "d": "2019-05-14", "r": 8.13 }, { "d": "2019-07-11", "r": 8.47 }, { "d": "2019-09-06", "r": 8.26 }, { "d": "2019-11-01", "r": 8.01 }, { "d": "2019-12-31", "r": 18.9 }, { "d": "2020-02-28", "r": 26.74 }, { "d": "2020-04-27", "r": 8.1 }, { "d": "2020-06-23", "r": 6.96 }, { "d": "2020-08-19", "r": 8.09 }, { "d": "2020-10-15", "r": 18.63 }, { "d": "2020-12-11", "r": 7.86 }, { "d": "2021-02-10", "r": 8.07 }, { "d": "2021-04-09", "r": 5.06 }, { "d": "2021-06-07", "r": 3.39 }, { "d": "2021-08-03", "r": 1.52 }, { "d": "2021-09-29", "r": -3.87 }, { "d": "2021-11-24", "r": -22.73 }, { "d": "2022-01-24", "r": -21.92 }, { "d": "2022-03-22", "r": -21.98 }, { "d": "2022-05-18", "r": 15.76 }, { "d": "2022-07-18", "r": 19.55 }, { "d": "2022-09-13", "r": 18.71 }, { "d": "2022-11-08", "r": 8.03 }, { "d": "2023-01-06", "r": 7.94 }, { "d": "2023-03-07", "r": 8.18 }, { "d": "2023-05-03", "r": 8.2 }, { "d": "2023-06-30", "r": 18.75 }, { "d": "2023-08-28", "r": 7.87 }, { "d": "2023-10-24", "r": 7.96 }, { "d": "2023-12-20", "r": 5.16 }, { "d": "2024-02-20", "r": 0.35 }, { "d": "2024-04-17", "r": -6.49 }, { "d": "2024-06-13", "r": 15.67 }, { "d": "2024-08-12", "r": 16.78 }, { "d": "2024-10-08", "r": 15.16 }, { "d": "2024-12-04", "r": 18.79 }, { "d": "2025-02-04", "r": 6.2 }, { "d": "2025-04-02", "r": 19.05 }, { "d": "2025-05-30", "r": 3.6 }, { "d": "2025-07-29", "r": -21.51 }, { "d": "2025-09-24", "r": -21.27 } ], "params": { "stop": 20.0, "l2": 6.6856124639126495, "l3": 15.808985200597903, "tp2": 39.99999999999999 }, "note": "Бектестът прилага същия план (нива в % спрямо входа, стоп, TP1/TP2) върху всеки 10-ти ден от реалната история на акцията; стоповете се проверяват по цени на затваряне (вътрешнодневни гапове не са моделирани). Справедливата цена в миналото не е известна, затова целта е ограничена до +25..+45%. Резултатите са нетни след такси и данък." }, "guidance": { "available": true, "docs": [ { "date": "2026-10-28", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436122/msft-ex99_1.htm", "tone": { "words": 3781, "positive": 8.727849775191748, "negative": 5.025125628140704, "uncertainty": 8.463369478973817, "net": 26.41509433962264 }, "guidance": [ "Quarterly Highlights, Product Releases, and Customer Stories", "Every quarter Microsoft delivers hundreds of products, services, and enhancements.", "These releases are driven by years of significant research and development investments, to empower customers with greater productivity, security, and differentiated value.", "This momentum is reflected in stories that showcase how our technology is shaping industries and driving customer success.", "We share innovation updates on our product blogs across Azure, Microsoft 365, and more on our Official Microsoft blog.", "Impact from investments in OpenAI." ], "n_guidance": 6, "guided_revenue": null, "guided_band": null, "reported_revenue": 92300000000.0 }, { "date": "2026-07-29", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323632/msft-ex99_1.htm", "tone": { "words": 4076, "positive": 9.813542688910697, "negative": 5.642787046123651, "uncertainty": 7.850834151128557, "net": 26.5625 }, "guidance": [ "Quarterly Highlights, Product Releases, and Customer Stories", "Every quarter Microsoft delivers hundreds of products, services, and enhancements.", "These releases are driven by years of significant research and development investments, to empower customers with greater productivity, security, and differentiated value.", "This momentum is reflected in stories that showcase how our technology is shaping industries and driving customer success.", "We share innovation updates on our product blogs across Azure, Microsoft 365, and more on our Official Microsoft blog.", "Impact from investments in OpenAI." ], "n_guidance": 6, "guided_revenue": null, "guided_band": null, "reported_revenue": 90000000000.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-29", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526191457/msft-ex99_1.htm", "tone": { "words": 3631, "positive": 7.7113742770586615, "negative": 6.334343156155329, "uncertainty": 8.812999173781328, "net": 9.615384615384617 }, "guidance": [ "Quarterly Highlights, Product Releases, and Customer Stories", "Every quarter Microsoft delivers hundreds of products, services, and enhancements.", "These releases are driven by years of significant research and development investments, to empower customers with greater productivity, security, and differentiated value.", "This momentum is reflected in stories that showcase how our technology is shaping industries and driving customer success.", "We share innovation updates on our product blogs across Azure, Microsoft 365, and more on our Official Microsoft blog.", "Impact from investments in OpenAI." ], "n_guidance": 6, "guided_revenue": null, "guided_band": null, "reported_revenue": 82900000000.0 } ], "diff": { "added": [], "removed": [], "tone_delta": -0.14740566037735903, "uncertainty_delta": 0.6125353278452605, "label": "Подобен тон" }, "guidance_accuracy": [], "note": "Анализът е върху прессъобщението за резултатите (SEC 8-K Ex-99), не върху конферентния разговор. Тонът е по речник (положителни/отрицателни/условни думи), без FinBERT – служи за ориентир. Диференциалът показва изречения за очаквания, които са нови или са изчезнали спрямо предходното тримесечие." } } }, "company": "Microsoft Corporation", "sector": "Technology", "industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "price": 520.8200073242188, "factors": { "1": 27.182673, "2": 21.539885, "3": 1.5003, "4": 8.22118, "5": 12.717419324426967, "6": 11.163995978813375, "7": 9.397303012469171, "8": 17.259736193056426, "9": 21.2814936583909, "10": 64.1774202658572, "11": 64.50807390096236, "12": 19.74550785121351, "13": -1.2791861091547574, "14": 1.5501935486948117, "15": 7.971901912194596, "16": 67.65691523907114, "17": 47.10444659325434, "18": 41.16988266535814, "19": 64.35076274733363, "20": 17.306354544011317, "21": 30.192208518669684, "22": 32.241227703345714, "23": 18.80742534046436, "24": 30.66893279801069, "25": 0.4568248467778516, "26": 76.1445955619184, "27": 85.20757984672892, "28": -55.540488290221845, "29": 1553565.0224215246, "30": 1.3733199655053951, "31": 1.2303272619576484, "32": 1.2220524211461572, "33": 0.4540263586554124, "34": 0.12845314170624364, "35": 0.11383117026199238, "36": 0.08683502287611017, "37": 56.0995966490847, "38": 3.4469784957589837, "39": 6.0, "40": 9.255130134301481, "41": -2.631776422337515, "42": 38885000000.0, "43": 16.237285749480872, "44": 5.671699574138598, "45": 1.0, "46": 16.12397915820203, "47": null, "48": 22.855998285745226, "49": null, "50": 4.044395808798296, "51": null, "52": 20.780685920577625, "53": 60.37977113411295, "54": 166.93125909410412, "55": null, "56": 0.752659257492721, "57": 19.0, "58": 44.10660973697817, "59": 0.78, "60": null, "61": 0.5758186787694873, "62": 1.3284779362622083, "63": -0.07699527634038583, "64": 3.580654938013249, "65": 45.55346485406704, "66": 49.29937681519434, "67": -0.6152309620342569, "68": 1.31533806574744, "69": 18.777520663297874, "70": 1.0, "71": 2.473767389906653, "72": 0.23340698989747027, "73": -1.6348965263599524, "74": 0.3915348338974353, "75": 0.008806189027606232, "76": 22.851821413802924, "77": 40.813199671735916, "78": 88.12821223402186, "79": 23.312723643089523, "80": 21.808367897395442, "81": 1.5407126038043093, "82": 0.88, "83": 2.94, "84": 75.708, "85": null, "86": 0.079, "87": -75404854.0, "88": null, "89": null, "90": null, "91": null, "92": 32.300000000000004, "93": 18.8, "94": null, "95": 21.563417514002815, "96": 0.10101745909805734, "97": 20.09046260886395, "98": 1.045, "99": null, "100": null }, "z": { "1": -0.253, "2": 0.511, "3": 1.09, "4": -1.744, "5": null, "6": -2.498, "7": null, "8": -0.268, "9": -0.384, "10": -3.0, "11": -3.0, "12": null, "13": -2.459, "14": -1.671, "15": null, "16": 2.744, "17": 3.0, "18": 3.0, "19": 3.0, "20": 0.461, "21": 3.0, "22": 3.0, "23": 3.0, "24": 3.0, "25": null, "26": null, "27": null, "28": null, "29": null, "30": 2.8, "31": -1.156, "32": 0.11, "33": -0.64, "34": 3.0, "35": null, "36": 3.0, "37": 3.0, "38": null, "39": 1.0, "40": 3.0, "41": 2.369, "42": null, "43": null, "44": null, "45": null, "46": 1.098, "47": null, "48": 1.775, "49": null, "50": -0.592, "51": null, "52": 2.367, "53": null, "54": 1.669, "55": null, "56": -1.871, "57": null, "58": 1.791, "59": null, "60": null, "61": -2.136, "62": -1.672, "63": 0.692, "64": 1.894, "65": null, "66": 0.855, "67": null, "68": 1.06, "69": -0.453, "70": 3.0, "71": null, "72": 1.6, "73": null, "74": -2.677, "75": 0.088, "76": 0.084, "77": null, "78": 2.868, "79": 2.602, "80": null, "81": null, "82": 3.0, "83": 1.707, "84": 2.571, "85": null, "86": null, "87": null, "88": null, "89": null, "90": null, "91": null, "92": 3.0, "93": 1.76, "94": null, "95": 1.156, "96": null, "97": 3.0, "98": null, "99": null, "100": null }, "groups": { "value": 29.3, "quality": 93.6, "safety": 75.3, "growth": 76.4, "momentum": 65.0 }, "composite": 66.7, "fair_value": { "fair_value": 277.01035300766, "mos": -88.01463615687203, "components": { "dcf": 207.0803779688006, "reverse_dcf": 118.59449148404379, "multiples": 530.1816368061562, "graham_lynch": 389.9550105859835 }, "wacc": 0.10101745909805734, "ke": 0.10183000183105469, "growth_used": 0.1838146526959943, "implied_growth": 0.4369870893913167, "hist_growth": 4.044395808798296, "notes": [ "Пазарът залага ~44% годишен ръст на FCF срещу исторически ~4% – риск от разочарование." ] }, "category": "stalwart", "category_reasons": [ "Ръст 16% годишно" ], "moat_hints": [ "Висок брутен марж (>50%) – признак за ценова сила / ров", "ROIC > 15% – устойчива възвръщаемост над цената на капитала", "Разширяващ се оперативен марж" ], "signals": { "signal": "SELL / EXIT", "buy_conditions": { "mos_ge_20": false, "quality": true, "rsi_lt_35": false, "support_test": false, "insider_buying": false }, "buy_met": 1, "unknown": [], "sell_conditions": { "thesis_break": false, "euphoria": false, "accounting_flag": false, "ma_risk": null }, "sell_triggers": [ "mos_lt_-25" ] }, "plan": { "position_min": 0.0, "position_max": 0.0, "stop_loss": 479.15, "stop_pct": 8, "take_profit": null, "horizon": "n/a (няма дисконт)" }, "forecast": { "1": { "bear": 461.7049682878772, "base": 523.3639991780555, "bull": 592.8218617426891, "mu": 0.12943522646432382, "vol": 0.3338680351960046, "p_up": 0.5232, "weights": { "technical": 0.5, "revisions": 0.35, "dcf": 0.15 }, "model_weight": 0.4, "capm": 0.10183000183105469, "used": [ "technical", "revisions", "dcf" ] }, "3": { "bear": 429.1025540563984, "base": 531.3107510526004, "bull": 662.1232784233473, "mu": 0.12943522646432382, "vol": 0.3338680351960046, "p_up": 0.5482, "weights": { "technical": 0.5, "revisions": 0.35, "dcf": 0.15 }, "model_weight": 0.4, "capm": 0.10183000183105469, "used": [ "technical", "revisions", "dcf" ] }, "6": { "bear": 396.79248598818856, "base": 537.7944550073734, "bull": 726.9934240037115, "mu": 0.11124586228309266, "vol": 0.3338680351960046, "p_up": 0.5553, "weights": { "technical": 0.3, "revisions": 0.45, "dcf": 0.25 }, "model_weight": 0.4, "capm": 0.10183000183105469, "used": [ "technical", "revisions", "dcf" ] }, "12": { "bear": 342.69192800634187, "base": 528.0085011358037, "bull": 816.2287685130195, "mu": 0.0734352264643238, "vol": 0.3338680351960046, "p_up": 0.5179, "weights": { "technical": 0.15, "revisions": 0.35, "dcf": 0.5 }, "model_weight": 0.4, "capm": 0.10183000183105469, "used": [ "technical", "revisions", "dcf" ] }, "24": { "bear": 273.84562141822346, "base": 494.6047472347188, "bull": 905.188746949618, "mu": 0.036719272736170525, "vol": 0.3338680351960046, "p_up": 0.458, "weights": { "technical": 0.05, "revisions": 0.2, "dcf": 0.75 }, "model_weight": 0.4, "capm": 0.10183000183105469, "used": [ "technical", "revisions", "dcf" ] }, "36": { "bear": 224.21253088372035, "base": 469.8996111690938, "bull": 988.4399251285063, "mu": 0.022470764081155427, "vol": 0.3338680351960046, "p_up": 0.4253, "weights": { "technical": 0.03, "revisions": 0.12, "dcf": 0.85 }, "model_weight": 0.4, "capm": 0.10183000183105469, "used": [ "technical", "revisions", "dcf" ] } }, "available": 87, "warnings": [], "as_of": "2026-11-03T18:46:30.902759Z" }